“As a country rich in fossil fuels, we will defend the rights of other countries to extract and invest in these fuels”explained last April Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, thus setting the course that his country could follow in the next climate negotiations, while Azerbaijan hosts this Cop29.
It must be said that the country is an exporter of hydrocarbons par excellence. Despite the great potential of renewable energy in Azerbaijan, profits from oil and gas account for 60% of its revenue.
Beyond the drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this Cop29 aims to define the amount of financial aid for developing countries which are hard hit by the consequences of climate change.
Find hundreds of billions of dollars
Rich countries, including the United States, Japan and members of the European Union, had already committed in the past to releasing 100 billion dollars per year, from 2020, to support developing countries.
However, this objective was only achieved in 2022. In addition, a significant part of the funds was paid in the form of loans with high interest rates.
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Niklas Höhne of the New Climate Institute, a German NGO, estimates that with an amount between 200 and 700 billion dollars per year, “there would be a fair financial balance between the rich countries, which are really responsible for climate change, and the less rich countries, which suffer the most from climate change,” he explains.
Africa and developing countries, including India, have repeatedly demanded $1 trillion a year. A sum that industrialized countries consider unrealistic. They also want to expand the circle of contributing countries to the oil-rich Gulf States and China.
Who pays the bill?
China is today the country that emits the most gases harmful to the climate. The fact remains that the economic superpower is still listed as a developing country, thus theoretically being a beneficiary of aid rather than a payer.
The United Arab Emirates, which hosted COP28 last year, is also officially considered a developing country. Dubai, however, has assured the poorest countries of financial support for the energy transition and reconstruction after climate disasters.
Observers saw this as a glimmer of hope for rich developing countries to participate in aid funds.
Last year, Cop28 in Dubai called for a “transition” away from oil, gas and coal.
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Meanwhile, the summer of 2024 in the northern hemisphere has, once again, been the hottest on record. As it stands, scientists expect global warming to reach 3.2 degrees by the end of the century, where in the Paris Climate Agreement 197 countries agreed to limit global warming. 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era.
“There is a huge gap between rhetoric and reality when we claim that we are guided by 1.5 degrees and that one of the main missions is not fulfilled”explains Alden Meyer, of the international think tank E3G, specializing in climate policy.
The United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan, as well as Brazil, which is host to the next COP, all plan to increase fossil fuel production, the expert says. The same trend is observed in the United States, Canada, Norway, Australia and the United Kingdom.
The return of Donald Trump
The lack of green financing can also be explained by increasingly tight national budgets since the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which has led to a considerable increase in military spending around the world.
Added to this is the electoral victory of Donald Trump in the United States, the second largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions.
During his first term, the billionaire openly questioned the credibility of scientists, disengaging the country from the Paris Agreement. Donald Trump has already promised that the production of coal, oil and gas will be a priority of his second term.
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His opinion on electric vehicles, whose sales have increased significantly in the United States under Joe Biden, is variable, ranging from total rejection to a more nuanced position since Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla, which represents almost half of the market American Electric, supports it.
“His desire to boost fossil fuel extraction, his disregard for international agreements and his refusal to finance climate will exacerbate the crisis and endanger lives and livelihoods”comments Harjeet Singh, member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Fossil Fuels (TNPCF).
