On the evening of Wednesday, November 6, Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic Chancellor (SPD), demanded the withdrawal of his Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), putting an end to a relationship that had become electric and conflictual. .
This measure marks the dissolution of the so-called “traffic light” alliance, bringing together the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, and plunges Scholz into a minority situation in the Bundestag. The possibility of early legislative elections is thus looming on the horizon, scheduled for the start of 2025, with a deadline set at the end of March.
Post-election outlook: towards an uncertain future
“This decision was necessary to preserve the interests of our country and avoid any paralysis of the State”affirmed Scholz, during a statement to the press that same evening. He expressed his willingness to reach out to Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative opposition (CDU) and already a declared candidate for chancellor, in a rare gesture of conciliation to collaborate on crucial issues of the economy and the defense.
In addition, the dismissal of Christian Lindner and the fragility of the German coalition may have consequences on relations between Morocco and Germany, such as political and diplomatic impact. Indeed, with political instability in the government, Germany, one of the main economies and political leader of the European Union, can slow down internal decision-making, but also affect its diplomatic relations.
For Morocco, a strategic partner in the Mediterranean region, this instability can create uncertainty regarding the continuity of political and economic commitments. For example, bilateral agreements on security or development cooperation could be put on hold, awaiting stabilization from the German government.
With early elections looming, the German political landscape is on the verge of undergoing a major shake-up, the outcome of which remains uncertain. A change of coalition or political alternation could reshuffle the cards of Germany’s international relations, and therefore affect its strategic partnerships.
Potential consequences for German-Moroccan relations
In this context, German-Moroccan relations, which currently enjoy rare excellence (as evidenced by the very successful presence of the Minister of Industry and Commerce, Ryad Mezzour, in Frankfurt on the occasion of the 3rd German Forum “ Africa Trade & Invest meets Managing Risk “), could be put to the test. Over the years, Morocco and Germany have woven a complex network of economic, security, energy and commercial exchanges which have strengthened their positioning on the international scene.
Joint projects in the renewable energy sector, notably initiatives linked to green hydrogen, have consolidated this cooperation, symbolizing a major pillar of their partnership. On the security front, Germany and Morocco actively collaborate in the fight against terrorism and the management of migratory flows, crucial issues for the stability of the two nations.
Prevention and the sharing of sensitive information between the intelligence services of the two countries have helped thwart potential threats and strengthen regional security. This synergy has proven essential in a context marked by tensions and migration crises.
From an economic point of view, German investments in Morocco, which cover sectors ranging from automobiles to sustainable agriculture, have helped to stimulate the Moroccan economy and create jobs. German companies find a dynamic and strategic market there, while Morocco benefits from advanced technologies and recognized expertise.
Morocco-Germany: prosperous trade relations
This economic interdependence has not only consolidated prosperous trade relations, but also made Morocco an essential partner in North Africa. On the energy front, the partnership around green hydrogen projects and renewable energies reveals the common ambition of the two countries to reduce their carbon footprint and promote sustainable development.
However, a political upheaval in Germany could destabilize this balance. A government less favorable to Morocco or more influenced by other geopolitical priorities could review current agreements and call into question German support on sensitive issues, such as the Sahara question.
A German distancing itself from this key issue, although improbable, could fuel tensions, thus unbalancing the alliances which have until now served as diplomatic leverage for the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Germany.
Maintaining a strong and mutually beneficial partnership between Berlin and Rabat is, without a doubt, more decisive for preserving regional stability and economic development on both sides. But, let it be said, the German political spectrum would not, under any circumstances, dare to sacrifice its best piece to call into question this very golden alliance.
