Lhe personal triumph of Donald Trump in the presidential election of November 5 is accompanied by another political exploit: the transformation of the Republican Party, which today results in a historic recomposition of the American electorate.
The first geographical and sociological analyzes of the November 5 vote highlight a spectacular advance by the Grand Old Party (GOP) in categories of the electorate hitherto attached to the Democratic Party. This surge is particularly notable among Hispanic and working-class voters. It also affects, to a lesser extent, the African-American male electorate.
In eight years, through a first term in the White House and three presidential electoral campaigns, the former businessman has managed to win the support, after the blue-collar workers of 2016 seduced by his protectionism, of a proportion significantly middle class, particularly Latina. In line with the demographic evolution of the country, he put together a now multi-ethnic republican coalition, capable of attracting people located at the bottom of the social scale.
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This reality contributes to unprecedented Republican pride given the indisputable nature of the GOP victory, after the narrow result of 2016, the setbacks of 2018, 2020, and the lackluster midterm elections of 2022. It implicitly underlines how the inability of the Democratic Party to tackle head on the frustrations of some Americans in the face of inflation, which has eroded purchasing power, and illegal immigration deemed uncontrolled has was paid a high price. The party of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed itself to be fooled by good macroeconomic results and was incapable of formulating a migration policy that met the challenges.
An unpopular outgoing president
Since his thunderous entry into politics, Donald Trump has often been presented as capable of defying the laws of electoral weightlessness. However, his large victory on November 5 can also be explained by the law according to which an unpopular outgoing president has no chance of being re-elected. Certainly, Joe Biden’s name did not appear on the ballot papers, but the Democratic candidate, as vice-president, was accountable for a record from which she was unable to free herself.
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Another face of Trumpism, the one most often denounced by its detractors, appeared in this campaign studded with insults, threats and lies. The assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, which Donald Trump encouraged to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s victory, should have disqualified him; by returning the ex-president to the White House, his voters reduced this episode to a distraction, at their peril.
At the same time, many of the slogans that Donald Trump intends to transform into public policies, whether it is the imposition of massive import taxes, likely to revive inflation, or the expulsion of millions of migrants without residence permit, could cause chaos. Nevertheless: what the polls revealed about Trumpism in 2024 is this adequacy with social concerns, independently of his responses. To hope to reconnect with voters who have once again abandoned it, the Democratic Party will have to take this into account, or resign itself to playing useful.
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