With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the world is preparing to experience new turbulence: isolationist and unpredictable, the president-elect intends to turn the page Joe Biden, who has tried over the past four years to restore the image of United States in the world.
The Republican’s victory Wednesday over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris will likely have the most immediate repercussions in Ukraine, where Donald Trump has promised to quickly end the war by forcing kyiv to make concessions to the Russian invaders.
The 78-year-old tycoon believes that “this war should never have taken place” and he praises his “very good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he will undoubtedly seek to meet face-to-face once took office on January 20.
“I think his first step would be a kind of very personal, spectacular diplomacy, like: ‘Vladimir, let’s talk. We could solve this problem,'” said Leon Aron, of the American Enterprise Institute, a research center in Washington.
“How far would it go? It’s difficult to predict,” he adds, however, considering it unlikely that Mr. Putin will give in on Ukraine and that Mr. Trump will also have to take into account the American Congress which has its say on foreign policy.
– Tensions with allies –
While outgoing President Joe Biden had made strengthening the alliances of the world’s leading power a priority, the United States’ relations with historic allies could once again experience tensions.
Donald Trump notably accuses the Europeans of abusing the American umbrella and has called into question NATO, the cornerstone of United States foreign policy since the Cold War.
After the septuagenarian’s victory was announced, many foreign leaders, from Emmanuel Macron to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, congratulated him.
It should also be well received by nationalist leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whom Donald Trump met several times during the campaign, as well as by autocrats, like North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
The Kremlin, for its part, indicated that Vladimir Putin had not planned to congratulate him.
As for relations with China, Donald Trump has lashed out against Beijing, he who sees the Asian giant as an enemy.
However, he also highlighted his close relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and takes a “transactional” approach to international relations.
China said it hoped for “peaceful coexistence” with the United States after the Republican’s victory.
The president-elect could also make waves in Latin America, where important partners of the United States, Brazil and Colombia, are now led by left-wing presidents.
One of his main campaign promises – the mass expulsion of millions of undocumented immigrants – risks sowing chaos in the region if it is implemented.
Contrary to a multilateral vision of the world, Donald Trump defends “America first”, particularly in the area of trade.
– A “different Trump 2.0” –
For Brian Finucane, specialist in United States foreign policy at the International Crisis Group, he risks feeling like he is growing wings compared to his first mandate.
“A Trump 2.0 would be very different. It wouldn’t have any of these personalities that have, in fact, held back Trump at some point or in some way, including at the Pentagon,” he says.
The Republican has already aroused fears in Taiwan by publicly questioning the advisability of defending the island in the event of a Chinese invasion.
In the Middle East, Donald Trump should reaffirm his unconditional support for Israel, with the background of doing everything to counter the common enemy Iran.
According to press reports, he gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu carte blanche in the war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, in the two months before he took office.
Mr. Netanyahu hailed “the greatest comeback in history,” seeing in Mr. Trump’s return to the White House “a powerful reengagement in the great alliance” with Israel.
And the Republican will increase pressure on Tehran, having encouraged Benjamin Netanyahu to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities after the missile attack on Israel in early October.
During his first term, Mr. Trump agreed to the transfer of the United States embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He recently received Mr. Netanyahu at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
The former president is expected to further encourage other Arab countries to recognize Israel, after the Abraham Accords in 2020, which saw the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Bahrain normalize their relations with the Jewish state.
And he will cherish the hope, disappointed under the Biden administration, of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which would represent a major upheaval in the region.
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