Follow the results of the 2024 American presidential election live all night long! The first figures are already coming in, with exit polls, such as the “chances of winning” of Trump or Harris.
22:49 – The first results from Pennsylvania, decisive, expected overnight
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electors, could swing the presidential election in the USA. 4 years ago, the election in this state was won by Joe Biden, but by Donald Trump in 2016, and by the Democrats in previous elections. Pollsters expect a very narrow victory for Trump or Harris; voting intentions were neck and neck a few hours ago. Polling stations close at 2 a.m. French time, and the partial count will then be given slowly. The results are eagerly awaited, all eyes of the American media are focused on this state. But the final results could take hours and hours… unless a candidate springs a surprise and takes a considerable lead.
22:33 – First results of the American presidential election: Harris winning in Micronesia
Voters in the territory of Guam, the American island state of Micronesia, located in the Pacific Ocean, voted 49.46% for Kamala Harris and 46.22% for Donald Trump, according to several local media. This territory still has 170,000 inhabitants, but no major voters cast their choice in the December vote.
22:17 – In Georgia, results delayed due to false bomb threats
Counting the votes and giving the first trends could take longer than expected in Georgia: as local media report, Fulton County, located in this state, will probably ask a court to extend the opening hours of polling stations. voting in some polling stations, with voting disrupted by false bomb threats until 7:30 p.m. local time. For the same reasons, two polling places located in Cobb County in Georgia are allowed to stay open until 7:20 p.m., another in Gwinnett County requests an extension until 8 p.m. The time at which the results must legally be transmitted is therefore postponed by one hour.
21:55 – Florida, decisive state in this election in the USA?
Very often in the history of American presidential elections, Florida’s vote has swung the general election. But this year, all the pollsters and experts in political sociology took into account the fact that Donald Trump was the overwhelming favorite. Which took Florida out of the “swing states”. Pollsters consider that the state will vote as a whole for Donald Trump and that it is really unlikely that Kamala Harris will be able to win. On the other hand, if she wins more votes than her rival in this state, it is very clear that she will be considered very likely to win the election, given the electoral weight of Florida.
9:16 p.m. – New number on results in Pennsylvania
Before the first results from the counting, here is an estimate based on the final polls carried out today among voters in the state: according to 270towin, Donald Trump’s chances of victory are estimated at 52% at this stage, against 48 % for Kamala Harris. The candidate who wins this state will have a considerable advantage in gaining access to the White House.
21:06 – How many electoral votes do Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have?
Before the first results, the site 270towin estimates that Donald Trump begins the race for the White House in the lead, with 230 electors on whom he can count without hesitation, compared to 226 electors for Kamala Harris. Remember that to win, the winner must obtain the votes of 270 electors.
20:55 – Another probabilistic model gives close but favorable results for Trump
The 25,000 simulations carried out by another reference site, 270towin, this Tuesday, November 5, provide enlightening information on the 2024 American elections: Donald Trump’s chances are estimated at 50.8%, those of Kamala Harris at 48.8 % This evening. On this probabilistic model, we must still be careful: the simulations are carried out on a general compilation of polls across the 50 states, before the vote has taken place. Biases in the poll panels, in particular the fact that the respondents are not all representative of the voters – especially among Trump supporters – still make this data fragile. But it gives a trend: it will be tight.
20:46 – Trump clearly ahead in the “probabilities of victory”
According to the serious results projection site DecisioDesk, Donald Trump’s victory is significantly more likely at this stage, with a 54% chance of victory. Kamala Harris now has only a 46% chance of victory. This probabilistic model is essentially based on the polls carried out so far on the first votes and the first exit polls. The model is serious, but at this stage, the data is still fragile, since the polls are still not very representative and it is especially necessary to have the first results in the swing states to have robust projection elements, even for a model of this type . Two days ago, this model gave Donald Trump a 60.6% chance of victory.
20:44 – When will we know the results of the American presidential election in key states?
According to the New York Timesthe first, unofficial results should be communicated around 3 a.m. Wednesday in Arizona and around 5 a.m. in North Carolina. In Wisconsin, the first results are also expected on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, in Nevada the count usually takes several days. While Michigan records most votes by noon the day after the election, with the state recently passing reforms to speed up vote counting, results could be known a little sooner than expected. Since Pennsylvania cannot begin counting ballots before Election Day, the state is expected to take a little longer than others to release its first estimates.
8:05 p.m. – Harris winning in 503 out of 495 simulations
The results of the 2024 American elections will undoubtedly be as close as expected: the reference site 538.com, which develops prediction models by integrating all the most recent polling data, hour by hour, gives the following results: on a average of 1000 probable simulations, 503 give Kamala Harris winning, 495 giving Donald Trump winning, 2 giving perfect equality in the number of electoral votes won. This means that predictions are still very difficult to establish at this stage, even if these first figures are enlightening.
19:45 – Trump already has a word on the results, without really saying what he will do if he loses
Donald Trump will watch the election results with a small group of family and friends at his home in the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, several close sources told CNN. The former president was also interviewed by the news channel, which asked him if he planned to declare himself the winner that evening, although the figures are not final. He didn’t answer. Journalists also asked him if he was thinking of asking his supporters not to be violent in the event of defeat, he replied: “I don’t need to tell them that there will be no violence. Of course there won’t be violence. My supporters are not violent people. I don’t need to tell them that, and I certainly don’t want violence, but I certainly don’t need it. to tell them. They are great people. They are people who don’t believe in violence. Unlike you, you believe in violence!
19:02 – 54% chance of winning for Trump
While the latest polls of the American presidential election will be published in 5 hours, the latest ones warn of Decision Desk HQ – American pollster – estimate that Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning in this American presidential election. For her part, Kamala Harris would have a 46% chance of accessing the White House. A dynamic favorable to the Republican which can still evolve.
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The graph below compiles the results of the largest national polls, in voting intentions, carried out on the American presidential elections. Since her declaration of candidacy, Kamala Harris had an advantage which has melted since the second half of October. Here are the latest polls.
The state-by-state polls are undoubtedly the most relevant to have a vision of the most probable results of this American presidential election. Here is the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gave projections of Democratic and Republican votes this Wednesday, November 5:
In around ten states, the balance of power is more nuanced, these “Swing States” are therefore those which will swing the presidential election, because the one who wins the election there generally wins at the national level. Here are the voting intentions in the most important Swing States, according to the Real Clear Politics compilation:
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which take place every four years, citizens vote at the beginning of November. The candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, obtains all the electors of that state, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their voters proportionally. The candidate having received at least 270 voters wins the presidential election.
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