Donald Trump is completing his third presidential campaign, a situation not seen since Democrat Franklin Roosevelt. Beyond his undeniable political longevity, it is even more striking to note that Trump, who went on the campaign trail four years ago, has always led it as an outsider posing as a defender of “Forgotten Americans”. There is a double mystery here, on which analyzes stumble more than ever: why does Trump persist and what will he do if he wins on November 5?
We see two main reasons. First of all, the state of the Republican Party, whose organizational weakness and doctrinal vacuity have been blatant since the irruption of Trump in 2016. A true media beast, the billionaire was already putting his communication talents to good use to win the Republican nomination, despite some obstacles. The cadres of the “Grand Old Party” (GOP) stood helpless as Trump molded it in his image. Despite his underperformance during the 2018 midterms, his defeat in 2020 and the failure of his candidates in 2022, Republican officials were unable to dislodge him.
The party has lost its ideological compass. On the right, many never-Trumpers – influential former elected officials, like Liz Cheney, or public intellectuals David French and Bill Kristol – declare that Trump is not a conservative. But they fail to shake the Trumpist mix between left-wing populism (protectionism) and right-wing populism (immigration, tough on crime and nationalism) mixed with Reaganite rhetoric (« Make America Great Again » comes from the presidential campaign of candidate Reagan in 1980).
Victim position
But the latter offered a happy optimism, absent in Trump. With his rhetoric of « carnage »he shamelessly exploits the fears of a base that harbors anti-immigrants, religious fundamentalists, racists and isolationists. Brought together in a grand populist synthesis, this coalition swept away the old Republican establishment. Paralyzed by the weight of the Trumpist base, while a new generation of Trumpist elected officials emerged during the primaries, the Republican elites swallowed their pride and kept a low profile, leaving the party open to charismatic protesters in search of scapegoats.
Secondly, the denunciation of the “rigged election” since 2020 has proven to be a masterstroke. Ridiculed by the courts of justice, it has nevertheless become a mobilizing myth of Trumpism, even a life-size test of loyalty to the leader. The ad nauseam repetition of accusations of fraud since then has allowed Trump to maintain the enthusiasm of his electoral base, who largely share this feeling that democracy no longer belongs to them.
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