The high-speed train (TGV) desired by the Trudeau government between Quebec and Toronto will cost more than 100 billion, according to information from The Press. And this hefty bill could approach 200 billion if extensions are added along the way.
Posted at 1:08 a.m.
Updated at 5:00 a.m.
Several sources have confirmed to us the information released Monday by -, according to which Ottawa will opt for a TGV – which would make it possible to travel from Montreal to Toronto in three hours – instead of the high frequency train (TGF) which was prioritized until now .
According to our information, the Federal Minister of Transport, Anita Anand, has made her choice. However, it is the Council of Ministers which will have the last word. Unofficially, one of the three consortia that presented proposals to Ottawa has already been chosen, several sources tell us.
It seems certain that the final cost will exceed 100 billion, according to these same sources. However, some of them even mention an initial bill of 120 billion, speaking of an “optimistic” scenario. This about-face has materialized in recent months, within the teams of VIA TGF – the state company set up for the high-frequency train project.
This is a 180 degree turn. As recently as the summer of 2023, Transport Canada argued that a TGV would cost 80 billion and that this amount was too high.
Behind the scenes, there is also talk that a pharaonic budget of 200 billion could be on the table, in order to take into account subsequent phases, such as the extension of the rail corridor to Windsor. It has always been a question of connecting Windsor to the United States border.
Mid-October, Mme Anand assured that Ottawa would “move forward with one of the three submissions” received so far, cautiously referring to a “high-frequency, high-speed train.” “We are the only G7 country not to have a system of this type. […] The options available to us are extremely exciting,” she persisted on Tuesday, refusing to go further.
Political obstacles
Since his arrival at the helm of VIA TGF in September 2023, CEO Martin Imbleau has never lacked ambition. Last winter, for example, he did not hesitate to say that his organization would study travel times of around three hours between the metropolis and the Queen City.
On the political scene, the conservatives – who are at the gates of power, according to polls – are however not keen on a project that could cost a fortune, when the federal deficit is already more than 40 billion.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has so far shown little enthusiasm for certain transportation projects that are already at a more advanced stage. His government would not invest “not a cent of federal money” in a tram project in Quebec.
If it actually sees the light of day, this TGV would considerably shorten travel time between Montreal and Toronto thanks to its trains which can reach speeds of up to 300 km/h. It currently takes almost six hours by car to travel between these two economic metropolises.
The project would mean the initiation of a vast project over several years, or even more than a decade, since new electrified railway tracks would have to be built. In addition to Montreal and Toronto, Quebec, Laval, Trois-Rivières, Ottawa and Peterborough could be served.
Ottawa must in principle announce this fall the group it will select to carry out this project, as well as the option it favors. According to our information, the decision could be made public during the economic and financial update to be made by the Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, in November.
150 million per kilometer
Transport planning expert and lecturer at the University of Montreal Pierre Barrieau also calculates that a TGV would cost around 120 billion, if all goes well. “Over approximately 800 kilometers between Quebec and Toronto, that represents approximately 150 million per kilometer, which is very comparable with projects like the one in California currently, for example,” reasons the specialist.
In this American state, the planned network to connect Los Angeles to San Francisco – a project which must be divided into several phases – could cost up to 128 billion US dollars, or around 168 billion CAN. The price per kilometer is more than 125 million US, the equivalent of 165 million CAN.
According to Mr. Barrieau, “at home, with a watered-down basic version, we would be closer to 65 billion”. “That said, this option would mean that the train would go slower in certain sectors, notably from Terrebonne to Dorval or at the entrance to Toronto to the city center. »
“Everything would also depend on the type of stations we build, whether they are grandiose or relatively simple. We can easily spend up to $10 billion on stations,” concludes the expert.
For the TGF, much slower than the TGV, the scale would go from 6 to 12 billion, according to what the Minister of Transport at the time, Omar Alghabra, indicated a few years ago.
With Joël-Denis Bellavance, The Press
Learn more
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- 92 %
- In August, a poll carried out on behalf of VIA TGF revealed that 92% of Canadians are in favor of a TGV rather than a high frequency train (TGF).
- 30 millions
- According to VIA TGF, the number of users could jump if Ottawa opted for a TGV. According to projections from the state-owned company, the number of passengers could increase from 5 million to 30 million per year.