Big Barometer: this is what the next federal government could look like

As the elections approach, they will be held in two weeks, Pascal Delwit gives us his analysis of what the next federal government could look like, based on the Grand Baromètre RTL info / Ipsos / Le Soir.

The verdict of this week’s Grand Barometer deserved analysis. As a reminder, among the findings of this RTL info / Ipsos / Le Soir poll, there is this downward trend for Ecolo, which would lose 2/3 of its seats in Parliament, with 4 representatives. At the same time, Les Engagés would go the opposite way, while Vlaams Belang would obtain 8 more seats than in 2019.

Pascal Delwit, political scientist at the University of Brussels, was on the set of RTL info 1 p.m. to debrief these trends. According to him, the rise in power of the Engagés in Wallonia is a trend which can result in two phenomena. “It is an opposition party and in 2019, the big winners of the election were opposition parties,” he recalled. “No doubt they benefit from this status. There is also an electoral offer which aims to be centrist, not very polarizing and in this context of affirmed polarization, perhaps some of the voters want to settle on a party which has minus this polarizing image”he then analyzes.

According to him, part of Ecolo’s electorate has also made the transition to Les Engagés, who are happily taking advantage of it. “There is probably a phenomenon of communicating vessels. Part of Ecolo’s electorate comes from Christian democracy, historically. So there is perhaps a return, or an image of Ecolo which is a little altered. Furthermore, Ecolo is a party of power and in 2019, all the parties of power had been sanctioned”concludes Pascal Delwit.

What could government look like?

So based on this Great Barometer, what could the future federal government look like? According to Pascal Delwit, two hypotheses are currently emerging, firstly the end of the current Vivaldi. “It would no longer be in the majority, but hypothetically, if the Engagés entered this majority, we would then have the two liberal, socialist, green parties and the two Christian Democratic parties, a kind of Vivaldi bis is possible”judges the political scientist.

A Vivaldi encore which would take a unique form. “There would then be 4 political families and 8 parties, which would be unprecedented in a coalition in Belgium.confirms Pascal Delwit, who suggests another possible majority. “There would be the association of the two socialist, social-Christian and liberal parties, to which the NVA would be added”he concludes.

Obviously, we still have to wait for the results of the June 9 elections. Only these verdicts will give us a clear idea of ​​the composition of the next government.

2024 elections big barometer



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