Which party would have the most seats in the House? Would Vivaldi keep its majority? The Grand Baromètre RTL info / Ipsos / Le Soir gives us some answers, 15 days before the elections.
Which seats for which parties?
In the latest Grand Baromètre RTL info / Ipsos / Le Soir, the MR is credited with 22.6% of voting intentions in Wallonia. In terms of seats in the House of Representatives, that means the Liberals would get 19 seats. They would thus be the largest French-speaking party. THE P.S. would recover 16 seats, 12 for The Committed, 11 to PTB4 for Eco and 1 for Challenge.
In Flanders, the first party would be Flemish Belang with 26 seats, against 20 for the NVA. The Flemish socialists would recover 12 seats, 10 seats for the CD&V, 6 for the Open VLD, 5 for Groen and 8 for the PVDA, the Flemish counterpart of the PTB.
Which political families are doing the best?
During the last elections, in 2019, the P.S. had obtained 19 seats. The latest poll therefore takes away three. However, Vooruit goes from 9 seats to 12. The socialists would therefore keep the same weight as today in the Chamber.
On the Liberal side, the deputies would lose a seat. THE MR is doing the right thing since it would recover 5 additional seats compared to 2019. The Prime Minister’s party loses 6. According to the Grand Baromètre, the blues would thus have 25 seats.
The Greens are losing momentum. Eco goes from 13 to 4 seats. A considerable loss which is not made up for by Green. The environmentalists would end up with 9 seats, compared to 21 in 2019.
In the center, the CD&V loses two seats. The Engagés gain 7. This is the biggest progression on the French-speaking side.
There NVA would lose 5 seats when the Flemish Belanghe would win 8. With 26 seats in total, the deputies of the far-right party would be the most represented in the Chamber.
THE PTB and the PVDA would obtain 19 seats, compared to 12 in 2019.
Finally, Challenge would lose two seats and would therefore have only one MP left to represent it.
Still a majority for Vivaldi?
In 2019, Vivaldi, represented by the PS, the CD&V, the Open VLD, the MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen, obtained 87 seats out of the 150 which constitute the Chamber of Representatives.
Today, according to the latest poll, Vivaldi is losing its majority. It would have 60 seats, far from the 76 required. Even if Les Engagés joined Vivaldi, which would then have 72 seats, it would still not be enough to obtain a majority. With this configuration, the NVA would therefore be essential to form a government.
big barometer election seats poll
