“Without political decision, France risks economic decline”

« Rdemographic armament. » In January 2024, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, mentioned his natalist concept for the first time, in the wake of the publication of French demographic figures in 2023 by INSEE. The total fertility indicator then stood at 1.68 children per woman.

On Tuesday January 14, INSEE published its figures for French demographics in 2024 and, not surprisingly, fertility fell further, reaching 1.62 children per woman. A figure at the lowest since the end of the First World War. In addition, the number of births is contracting (– 2.2%), mortality is increasing (+ 1.1%) and the population is aging (21.8% of inhabitants are at least 65 years old, compared to 16.3% in 2005).

A demographic development which could have serious consequences on the future of the country if it continues on this path. “Uncertainties remain. Will this decline in fertility continue or will it stop? One thing is certain: women of the younger generations are having children later and later,” assures Gilles Pison, demographer and advisor to the management of the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED).

A probable decrease in the active population, not without consequences

Alain Villemeur has a doctorate in economics, an engineer from the École centrale de Paris and scientific director of the university chair Demographic transitions, economic transitions (TDTE). Speaking under the control of Kevin Genna, economist and head of modeling at the chair, Alain Villemeur assures us: “For us, it is obvious that if no political decision is taken, France risks economic decline. We must recover this birth rate, otherwise we are condemned to a slowdown in economic growth, a decline in purchasing power, a reduction in retirement pensions… This debate is vital. If our fertility rate approached those of Italy (1.2 in 2024) or Japan (1.2 in 2024), economic stagnation would be assured as in these countries, without forgetting the discouragement of youth, with 2 millions of young people who have left Italy since the 2000s.

ALSO READ “The French demographic decline is not inevitable” For the two economists, the danger hanging over France is great. Especially since the fertility figures for those under 34 are still falling, “which is not comforting” according to Alain Villemeur. Within the university chair, three scenarios for the evolution of French demography are being studied: the first – “already a little outdated”, confesses Kevin Genna – imagines a France with a current fertility indicator stable at 1, 68, as in 2023; the second follows a continued decline in fertility from 1.68 to 1.3 in 2035; the third studies the rise in the fertility rate to 2.05, as in 2010. “But whatever the scenario, the active population should decrease from 2035-2040,” maintains Kevin Genna.

A possibility confirmed by Gilles Pison, author ofWorld Population Atlas (Editions Autres): “In the short term, the working population will not decrease, unlike a certain number of our European neighbors. But in the longer term, if births continue to decline, yes, the active population could decline, if this decline is not offset by net migration. » And this drop in the active population means, according to the TDTE chair, a slowdown in economic growth.

“In 2035-2040, growth should not exceed 1%”

“Quantifying the future slowdown in GDP is very complicated. By estimating that productivity gains continue to increase by 0.8% per year, without major change, growth could remain positive but should not exceed 1%” around 2035-2040, according to Kevin Genna. Figures to be taken with a pinch of salt, because “we are not immune to a technological shock, for example,” says the latter. For the record, in 2023 and 2024 (according to Bercy forecasts), annual GDP growth was 0.9% and 1%.

ALSO READ Birth leave: will fathers really take advantage of it? And one of the first consequences of the drop in the number of workers and the possible low economic growth in around ten years is the undermining of the retirement system, according to Alain Villemeur. “Pensions are a key issue,” he says. For the doctor in economics, the risk is a significant drop in pension levels for retirees. “It’s a total questioning of the French social system,” maintains Alain Villemeur.

Is the employment of seniors and young people at the heart of the issue?

Thus, if the fertility rate does not rebound, the migratory balance remains stable, like life expectancy, according to the university chair Demographic transitions, economic transitions (TDTE), to safeguard our French social system, no choice to work more.

“The question, in our opinion, is not so much the legal retirement age, but rather the employment rates of seniors and young people,” says Alain Villemeur. You have almost 2 million seniors who could work longer, as in all neighboring countries, and on the young side, we have today in France, around 1.5 million people under 29 who have not not employed, not in education or in training. » That’s almost 3.5 million more people who could contribute.

ALSO READ Why do we need to increase the employment rate of seniors? As a comparison country, experts look to Germany. Across the Rhine, among our German neighbors, the employment rate of 55-64 year olds increased from 64% to 73% between 2013 and 2022, compared to 56.9% in 2022 in France. On the youth side, the unemployment rate for those under 25 was 17.7% in September 2024 in France, compared to 6.9% in Germany. “If we had German employment rates for seniors and young people, a good part of the French deficits would disappear,” adds Alain Villemeur.

Ways to boost the birth rate

France can still count on its migratory balance (difference between the number of people who entered the territory and the number of people who left) estimated at +152,000 people in 2024, to avoid seeing its active population contract even further in the coming years, with the negative natural balance scenario – more deaths than births in a year – coming closer.

Other short-term economic consequences of the drop in the birth rate: a reduction in certain economic activities and education spending, for example. “Children who are born are parents who buy a car, a bigger home, etc. », explains Alain Villemeur.

ALSO READ How Macron wants to “rearm” France with babies
To Discover

Kangaroo of the day

Answer

But then what should we do to avoid this economic stagnation? For the economists of the TDTE chair, we must revive the birth rate “to avoid the trap of economic stagnation”. According to them, we must pursue better pronatalist policies, by promoting access to housing for young households (those under 30 have lost 18 square meters of purchasing power in twenty years, according to a study by Meilleurs Agents), by helping to set up less expensive childcare services and working on gender equality.

Gilles Pison also insists on this last point: “Today, mothers no longer want to put their careers on hold while fathers continue to work and they no longer want an unequal sharing of household tasks. We must therefore reduce inequalities, whether at work or at home, and ensure that fathers take more care of the children. »