Australian Open 2025 – Quarter-finals – Sinner, De Minaur and the reality principle

This time, he wanted to believe it. Really. It was even based on tangible and objectively incontestable elements. It's true, Alex de Minaur was probably playing the best Tennis of his career. And he was at home, in Australia, with the support of an entire audience. Of an entire country, even. But with him, this momentum seemed more buoyant than heavy. Then there was this doubt around the physical condition of Jannik Sinner, staggering and shaking two days earlier against Holger Rune.

So, maybe, we said to ourselves in the Australian clan. So, maybe it was his day. So much the worse for the nine defeats in nine matches against Sinner. Too bad if, in almost all of these matches, he had not existed. To hell with the 17 sets lost consecutively against the world number one. De Minaur had the heart and his reasons. All this wasn't totally absurd on paper, spelled out in a “why I can do it” column. Why not, after all. But these hopes were shattered by another reality: Jannik Sinner, winner 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 in 1h48, is much too strong for him.

The Italian, rejuvenated, was on fire this Wednesday evening at the Rod Laver Arena. He had his best match of the tournament. Above all, he does everything a little, even much better than Alex de Minaur, a sort of less accomplished clone. The Australian is a hell of a player, well anchored in the Top 10 and he continues to progress. But despite all his (good) will, his desire and his determination, he lacks something much more useful than the theory of dreams and even more than the Coué method: viable tennis weapons.

Two days ago, the “Demon” downplayed the importance of matchups. It was not a question of incompatibility of games which explained his catastrophic record against Sinner, he swore. He even quoted Taylor Fritz to argue: “It's not a question of bad matchups, it's just that Jannik is a damn good player. It's a bad matchup for just about everyone, right?'“

Sorry, Alex, but in reality, yes, these matchup stories are not a legend. There are games that suit you and others that seem like they were created just to annoy you. Wednesday evening, at a press conference, he also agreed. “The matchup. I think this is probably the worst matchup for me, and it shows in the results of our confrontationshe admitted, even going so far as to say a little further: “Tennis is so much about matchups.”

De Minaur came up against a merciless reality principle like one rushes into a wall at full speed without being able to stop or avoid it. “If I'm in another part of the picture, who knows? I really think I'm going to have Grand Slam opportunities. I've seen players go further and I don't feel inferior to them. I don't think the quarter-finals are my glass ceiling in big tournaments.” No, his glass ceiling is called Jannik Sinner.

The title holder, on the other side of the mirror, was as wary as the plague of this balance of power between them, as if relying on it to make it a guarantee or an immutable truth could have been a source of danger for him. . “Every match is different and everything can turn around so quicklyhe said. You know, if he breaks me at the start of the second set, the crowd can get hot and that can change quickly. If you take our final in Rotterdam last year, it could have gone either way. So every time we play, I expect something different. And I have to be ready. That's it, I was ready.”

Alex de Minaur was a hundred times right to try to persuade himself. Landing on the court convinced that he had no chance would have meant nothing. Even if he was perfectly aware that everything would not depend on him. He would have liked to face Sinner in the middle of a fight rather than in the relative cool of the evening. “In these conditions, a little slower, he said, it's even harder for me to put him out of position or push him into a mistake.”

The Australian has neither a service capable of offering him a significant quantity of free points nor the firepower in the exchange capable of putting a Sinner regularly in difficulty. “If you decide to be passive against him, he has the shots, the ball speed and the power to make the winning points, De Minaur notes. But if you try to put him under pressure, he has such good defensive quality that you expose yourself to making more unforced errors..” A sort of equation with multiple unknowns and, ultimately, almost insoluble for him.

He tried hard to believe in his dream and he tried to convince himself that even Jannik Sinner was not too high an obstacle. After the evening broth, he was visibly showing the blow. “It's a bit hard and it's disappointing, he admits. What's hard is taking such a slap in the face after playing such good tennis in recent days. At least it's not the first time I've experienced this. I felt the same way when I played Novak two years ago.” Reality in the face is never pleasant.