The 2024 Ballon d’Or nominees: Who deserves to win it? Who was unlucky to miss out?

There’s no ‘I’ in team but there is one in ‘best player in the world’ and that, one and all, is where the Ballon d’Or comes in.

Crowning the number one footballer in the world over the last year may seem like a fool’s errand given the multitude of nuances involved, but that’s what the France Football magazine has been doing since 1956 and, on Wednesday night, the nominees for the 2024 men’s award were announced.

The big names were all there (you’d think so given there are 30 players on the shortlist) and will be voted on by a group of pesky journalists before the winner is named on October 28.

So now that we know the identities of the players who could be named as the sport’s leading light — and, for the first time since 2003, that won’t be one of Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo — we can discuss who was lucky to be included, who was unlucky to miss out, and who seems nailed-on to win it.

Here, four writers from The Athletic critique this year’s Ballon d’Or nominations.

Who was the most surprising inclusion?

Ademola Lookman had the night to remember when he scored a hat-trick in the Europa League final in May. It was a campaign that also saw him help Nigeria to the Africa Cup of Nations final, scoring three goals in the process.

However, Lookman did not set the world alight across the whole season, managing just 55 per cent of Atalanta’s league minutes as he was rotated in and out of Gian Piero Gasperini’s side. His was a strong campaign, sure, but perhaps it’s a surprise to see him in the top 30 players of the year.

Mark Carey

Vitinha. A really good player, no doubt, but what have I missed? Compared with the other midfielders on the shortlist and what they achieved, it is difficult to make an argument in his favour — particularly after Portugal’s disappointing Euro 2024.

Dani Olmo is quite fortunate, too. He deserves to be considered among the best players in the world and he was exceptional in Germany over the summer, but that was form he rarely produced in the Bundesliga or Champions League during 2023-24. In fact, he only started 19 games in those competitions combined.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

Dani Olmo had a good Euros and, while that’s important, the award is supposed to reflect the whole of last season, in which case, someone like Riccardo Calafiori, for example, is more deserving as he excelled for Bologna. As a Wolves fan, the heights Vitinha has reached still amaze me. Also, the award is supposed to take good behaviour and fair play into account, so Emi Martinez can count himself lucky (don’t @ me, Aston Villa fans, I’m just joking).

Tim Spiers

Honestly, Emiliano Martinez. I think his year was 2022 with the World Cup, but I don’t think his season is worth a Ballon d’Or nomination. He won the Copa America and I see some justification there, but with Aston Villa, even though they had a good season, they ‘only’ qualified for the Champions League. I understand what this means for the club, but I don’t know if he deserves a nomination.

Laia Brain Herrero

Who was the most unfortunate player to be left off?

If we’re going on pure attacking numbers, Serhou Guirassy could be disappointed that he didn’t make the list. With 28 goals (plus three assists), only six players in Europe’s top five leagues had more goal contributions than Guirassy last season — and five of them made the list (poor Ollie Watkins).

Guirassy’s rate of 1.1 goals per 90 last season was bettered by no other player in Europe. It earned him a move to Borussia Dortmund but sadly was not enough to earn him a place on this shortlist.

Mark Carey

Jamal Musiala was probably the most talented player to be left off, but how about Lukas Hradecky, the Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper and captain? Leverkusen are well represented with Florian Wirtz, Alex Grimaldo and Granit Xhaka and all three deserve their place, but Hradecky was subtly fundamental to what Xabi Alonso’s side achieved and reached an extremely high level that, previously, many thought he was incapable of.

He was one game away from leading a team to an unbeaten domestic and continental treble, after all.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

Again, if we’re going on form over the whole year, how Mats Hummels is there and Virgil van Dijk isn’t makes little sense. Jamal Musiala was surely in the top 30 players of last season. Also, with 19 goals and 13 assists for his club, plus having won the Premier League and the Copa America, Julian Alvarez deserves a shout.

Most disappointingly of all, especially in an AFCON year, only one African player makes the list and even Ademola Lookman’s inclusion might have more to do with Atalanta than Nigeria.

Had William Troost-Ekong been named best player at the Euros rather than AFCON, he’d have been guaranteed to be on there, ditto James Rodriguez at the Copa America, but this remains a Euro-centric award almost exclusively for players based on the continent. It’s very strange not seeing Lionel Messi on there.

Tim Spiers

Call me old school or romantic, but Leo Messi. Yes, I know he’s not playing in one of the big leagues, but I find it strange to see an award he deserved every year previously without him after… 18 years? I know he has been injured for months and it has not been his best season, but he has also won the Copa America with Argentina, like Martinez.

Laia Brain Herrero

Who will finish in the top three?

Rodri, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior — in that order.

Mark Carey

Vinicius Jr, Rodri, Erling Haaland.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

It’s hard to imagine Rodri or Vinicius Jr not being up there. As for the third player, going on previous voting habits, it’s probably between Dani Carvajal, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe and maybe Lautaro Martinez. Let’s say Carvajal.

Tim Spiers

I can imagine Rodri and Vinicius Jr in the top three without a doubt and the third is probably Kylian Mbappe.

And I know many will disagree and say it is very hasty because he did not have a full season at Barcelona, but Lamine Yamal, despite his youth and the fact it is his first full season in the elite, also deserves a place because of the weight he had with Spain’s Euro 2024 champions and with a club as big as Barca at 17 years of age. His level was out of the ordinary. Maybe I’m saying this too soon, but I’ll just drop this suggestion here and go.

Laia Brain Herrero

Who do you think will win — and who should win?

All roads lead to Rodri. He has been the most consistent, dominant, influential player for club and country in the past 12 months. He has his fingerprints on anything his team does well — in and out of possession — with a Premier League and European Championship to show for his efforts.

It is about time more midfielders won this individual trophy. No one would be more deserving.

Mark Carey

Vinicius Jr will likely win, but Rodri probably should. It does still feel as if attacking players are overprivileged, as are success and performances in the Champions League. It’s quite interesting that, despite what Manchester City have achieved in his time at the club, Rodri has never so much as made the top three. Understandable in one sense because it can be hard to price his contribution accurately, but also clearly an oversight.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

Rodri.

Tim Spiers (that’s just my name, I don’t think I should win it)

Rodri. Although there are players like Dani Carvajal who have won all the big trophies like the Champions League, La Liga and the Euros, I think Rodri — although he didn’t win the Champions League — deserves it for what he is bringing to Manchester City, one of the best sides in Europe.

His position is undervalued in the individual awards, but I think he should be the one to win, and I think he will.

Laia Brain Herrero

The Ballon d’Or shortlist: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Phil Foden (Man City), Ruben Dias (Man City), Federico Valverde (Real Madrid), Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa), Erling Haaland (Man City), Nicolas Williams (Athletic Bilbao), Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen), Artem Dovbyk (Roma), Toni Kroos (Real Madrid), Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid), Martin Odegaard (Arsenal), Dani Olmo (Barcelona), Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen), Mats Hummels (Roma), Rodri (Man City), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Vitinha (PSG), Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid), William Saliba (Arsenal), Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Hakan Calhanoglu (Inter Milan), Antonio Rudiger (Real Madrid), Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid), Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan), Ademola Lookman (Atalanta), Alex Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen)

(Top photos: Getty Images)