DECRYPTION. Can the Bayrou government escape censorship?

When he left Matignon after ninety-one days as Prime Minister, Michel Barnier confided that it was “the shortest but most intense experience” of his career. Will François Bayrou be able to last longer? “I am convinced that the action that I define before you and the government team will ensure that we will not be censored” wants to believe François Bayrou who spoke on Monday on BFM TV.

The day after his government's announcement, at the time of transfers of power in the ministries, the Insoumis have already promised a motion of censure. It could be tabled on January 16, two days after the Prime Minister's general policy speech “if François Bayrou does not submit to a vote of confidence” before the National Assembly.

If passed, the censorship would lead to the resignation of the government, plunging the country into a political crisis. It would once again put pressure on Emmanuel Macron, whose rebels are still demanding his resignation, hoping for an early presidential election.

Disagree with the PS

François Bayrou “will be censored, more quickly in my opinion than the Barnier government, that is to say as soon as this government enters the week of the general policy declaration on January 14,” declared Tuesday on France 2 the LFI deputy and president of the Finance Committee, Éric Coquerel. Another round of criticism, those coming from the ranks of the PS. The hope of a non-censorship agreement seems to have gone definitively, according to the boss of the socialists. “None of the conditions were respected by François Bayrou,” said Olivier Faure, listing three of them on BFMTV: “no dependence on the extreme right, no more force with 49.3 and finally a change of cap”.

“I haven’t heard anything like that,” he added. Olivier Faure did not rule out the possibility that the PS would vote for a motion of censure following the general policy declaration, like the ecologists and the communists. The votes of the left alone (151 deputies from the New Popular Front) will not be enough to bring down the Bayrou government. Everything will depend on the attitude of the 121 deputies of the National Rally and their 16 Ciottist allies. A motion must receive an absolute majority of deputies, or 289 votes, to bring about the fall of the government. “We are not prohibiting anything, censorship is a tool provided for by General de Gaulle and the Constitution,” RN MEP Matthieu Valet said on LCI. “If the government listens to the leading party in France, we will move forward with co-construction,” he added.

What attitude for the RN?

François Bayrou therefore tries by all means to avoid such a sanction. The Béarnais sought to appease the National Rally, maintaining Bruno Retailleau at the Ministry of the Interior and especially by not appointing Xavier Bertrand to the Ministry of Justice, a request from the RN. Are these signs enough? The task promises to be difficult for the tenant of Matignon. In her wishes to the French posted on X, Marine Le Pen promises an “inevitable” transition. A political change of “large scale”, for “soon, at worst in a few months”.
If the motion of censure does not pass after the general policy speech, the opposition could have the opportunity to table another one, during the examination of the budget in February. This time, there is a great risk for the Prime Minister of seeing the voices of the RN mix with those of the left. The ascent of the Himalayas promised by François Bayrou has only just begun.