The European fertilizer market remains under tension even as the price of natural gas, essential to their production, is settling around €41/MWh on the Dutch TTF, its lowest level since November. Despite this lull, nitrogen fertilizer prices continue to rise. The nitrogen solution peaks at €267.5/t ex-Rouen, close to the highest levels of the year, while urea jumps by €7.5/t, reaching €400/t ex-port.
This outbreak can be explained in particular by a massive Indian call for tenders, involving 1.5 million tonnes of urea, which increased tension on the international market. At the same time, low-cost imports from Belarus and Russia, although accused of circumventing European sanctions, destabilize local producers, and in particular encourage Poland to consider customs duties.
Operators are now looking forward to the start of the year. The anticipated return of producers to purchasing could limit any potential for a short-term decline. Likewise, spring demand, fueled by delayed purchases to preserve cash flow, could accentuate the tension. While sporadic opportunities could appear among certain suppliers who wish to destock, they may be limited this year.
Conversely, phosphates display notable stability, just like potash, which is following a slight downward trend.
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