On February 24, 2025, it will be three years since Ukraine and Russia have been at war, after Moscow's attempt to invade the country, take kyiv and overthrow the president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Thirty-four months later, faced with resistance from the Ukrainian army, Vladimir Putin, who hoped for a total and rapid victory, will probably have to go through negotiation if he wants to put an end to this conflict.
After attacking on several fronts, Moscow made significant territorial gains in the East and South, but failed to bring about the collapse of the Ukrainian army. Hit by economic sanctions which have severely affected its population but not stopped its war machine, the Kremlin now only manages to nibble away, village by village, small parts of Ukrainian territory.
“For me, there will be no peace agreement for years, even decades”immediately tempers Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, director of the Russia/Eurasia Center of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). As it stands, the Ukrainian and Russian demands are too far apart to hope for a rapid agreement.
Vladimir Putin wants “neutral status for Ukraine”
On the Ukrainian side, we “wishes to obtain security guarantees”notes the specialist. Joining NATO, whose article 5 enshrines a principle of collective defense benefiting a member of the alliance if it is attacked, is very tempting, but “Vladimir Putin will never accept it”. The master of the Kremlin instead asks “a neutral status for Ukraine, the reduction of its army and the departure of Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he does not consider legitimate”.
Territorially, Russia has included in its constitution the annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts that it does not fully control: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. If Moscow does not obtain the transfer, “Vladimir Putin will have to find an arrangement to sell this to his population”thinks Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean.
A “probable” ceasefire
Ukraine, for its part, benefits from the incursion it led into the Russian region of Kursk, where it still controls a small territory which could serve as a bargaining chip. But on the territorial aspect, any speculation remains risky, although Vladimir Putin has said he wants to take into account “the realities on the ground”.
Although we cannot expect a peace agreement to be signed, hostilities could nevertheless end in the coming months thanks to a ceasefire. “It’s likely.judges the director of the Russia/Eurasia Center. On the other hand, this risks being provisional and very fragile: the belligerents fear that it will be used by the other to rearm and better prepare themselves. [pour la suite des combats]. »
Donald Trump will put pressure
The election of Donald Trump, the next US president who will take office on January 20, could help change the dynamics of this conflict and possible negotiations. The Republican notably affirmed, during his campaign, that he could “solve the war in 24 hours”.
“Donald Trump will do everything to obtain a ceasefire, otherwise it would not be credible”analyzes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. The future president, known for his impulsiveness, should not hesitate to put strong pressure on the belligerents to sit down at the negotiating table.
In particular, he threatened, at the end of November, to cut military aid to Ukraine if it did not begin talks with Russia, but also to arm kyiv more if it was Moscow which refused to negotiate. “Despite what anyone says, he can't just abandon Ukraineconsiders the Ifri researcher. Such a reaction would set an example for countries like China, Iran or North Korea. This would show them that the United States would be turned in on itself. »
Two companies at the end of their rope
The fact remains that beyond the diplomatic game, Russian and Ukrainian societies are exhausted by the deaths, deprivations and destruction caused by the war. “All these internal parameters also mean that it would be the right time for a ceasefire”estimates Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean.
In Ukraine, according to various polls, between a third and a half of the population would agree to a territorial concession in order to put an end to the conflict, during which Russia has regularly destroyed civilian infrastructure. The figure remains “to be nuanced, because the population also demands security guarantees”specifies the director of the Russia/Eurasia Center.
On the Russian side too, “there is fatigue and half of those surveyed are open to negotiations, but not at any price, believes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. Moreover, Russian public opinion is much more manipulable than that of Ukraine. Propaganda is capable of selling any act of Vladimir Putin as a great success. »
How many deaths?
The number of victims, whether civilian or military, remains very difficult to determine. At the beginning of December, Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that the Ukrainian army saw 43,000 of its soldiers killed and 370,000 wounded. On the Russian side, losses were put at more than 82,000 killed by the independent media Mediazona and the BBC Russian service. Both media are based on the exploitation of public information: official press releases, obituaries or death announcements on social networks, as well as the observation of graves in cemeteries.
However, both Russian and Ukrainian casualty figures could be underestimated. The latter in particular do not take into account the missing, according to experts. In addition, six million Ukrainians have fled their country since the start of the conflict in 2022.
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