Cocoa prices have performed exceptionally well in 2024, ranking among the most profitable agricultural commodities in global markets. Indeed, cocoa continues to shine, reaching unprecedented heights. On December 18, 2024, the most active cocoa contract in New York reached $12,636 per ton, breaking an all-time high. This price exceeds that of 12,220 dollars per tonne, previously reached on April 15, marking the conclusion of several weeks of continuous price increases.
This surge in prices, which exceeds analysts' expectations, came after a year 2023/2024 marked by the impact of El Niño, a natural climatic phenomenon of warming of Pacific waters. Unlike the previous year, when El Niño severely disrupted the harvest, the current price increase is mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions. The lack of rain in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, has seriously affected the size of the harvest, with effects worsened by the arrival of the harmattan.
Forecasts for cocoa production in Ivory Coast have been revised downwards. According to Bloomberg estimates, production could reach just 1.9 million tonnes by the end of the season, compared to initial forecasts of 2.1 to 2.2 million tonnes. In Ghana, the world's second largest producer, forecasts were also adjusted from 700,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes. Although these numbers are better than the previous year's disappointing levels, uncertainty remains in the market, helping to keep prices high.
The year 2023/2024 was marked by a historic production deficit. According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), this deficit reached 462,000 tonnes, the largest gap in 60 years, further adding to pressures on the industry. This deficit has fueled concerns about the possibility of a fourth consecutive year of shortages. The situation was also marked by initial optimism at the start of the 2024/2025 season, with hopes of a recovery in production, but the market is starting to internalize the idea that global production could still fall short. needs.
In 2024, cocoa prices jumped by more than 180%, an impressive increase from the previous year, when prices increased by 61% to end at $4,196 per tonne. This continued increase in prices highlights the fragility of the cocoa market, which remains faced with numerous challenges linked to climatic conditions and global supply management.
Moctar FICUU / VivAfrik
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