Assad’s fall, not a “defeat” for Russia, assures Vladimir Putin – rts.ch

The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime also weakens its main allies, including Russia, forced to evacuate part of its weapons and soldiers. Its bases in Syria are also compromised.

“What Russia risks losing with these two bases, the future of which is not clear, is obviously a very important military device to project itself aerially towards the Middle East, to be present in the Eastern Mediterranean and to also supply its allies in Africa and the Gulf”, explains Cyrille Bret, associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, in La Matinale de la RTS.

The loss of the port of Tartous would in fact deprive Russia of its only warm water port, which also offers it a direct outlet to the Mediterranean. As for the Hmeimim base, it constitutes a necessary stopover to resupply the planes which transport men and materials to Africa, incapable of reaching the continent in one go.

A forced withdrawal from Syria would also deprive Russia of “means of information.” “We don’t know it, but Russia had big ears there,” says Cyrille Bret. “So it will weaken it in the region in the very short term and it will subsequently force it to find another point of support in Africa.”

“Will it be Libya, where it can count on General Haftar whom it helped? Will it be Algeria, with which it has a relationship as old as with Syria? what will it be elsewhere, more in the Red Sea?”, continues the geopolitician. “In any case, it will cost him a lot financially and materially.”