THE prix from the seed of rapeseed decrease sharply on the February deadline and the following ones, between December 17 and 18 on the walk European futures Euronext.
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In militarycourses on CBOT in Chicago continued to decline. The good prospects for the soybean harvest in South America continue to weigh on the markets. The market continues to worry about the prospects ofexportation of the bean with the coming to power of Donald Trump. In addition, the current strength of the dollar is penalizing US exports. Indeed, the American Central Bank (FED) decided to lower its interest rates by 25 basis points, which strengthened the value of the dollar towards the devises foreign.
L’USDA will communicate export sales this December 19. The market will watch carefully if the figures show a slowdown in exports.
Furthermore, a provisional bill to finance the US government was announced. The latter does not include support for the sector of biodieselwhich put more pressure on soybean oil prices.
Let us point out a new exceptional sale of 120,000 t of soybean meal by the United States.
The canola Canadian listed in Winnipeg is once again falling in response to US soybean prices. In addition, the United States bill on biodiesel provided no support to seed prices.
In Malaysiathe courses ofpalm oil have fallen sharply, given the weakness of exports over the first half of December, according to the latest inspections of the fret maritime. Current prices are high, which has caused a drop in demand from India and China. Operators hope for an upcoming recovery in sales towards Chine with the arrival of the Chinese New Year in early 2025.
The courses of rapeseed on Euronext ended the session sharply lower with a drop in prices of €16.75/t on the February deadline, in response to the market correction on palm and soybean oil. The gap with the May deadline is reduced to €15/t.
FOB Moselle rapeseed is once again quoted (€508.50/t as of December 18), at a level well below the last recorded price (€532/t as of December 13). The return to a navigation partial and erratic on the Moselle also led to profit taking on the close. In fact, a total of eight stranded boats resumed navigation yesterday. In Germany and to Thinkingdeliveries remain possible for the moment. The February deadline for rapeseed on Euronext is disconnected from market reality due to the impossibility of Matif delivery to three French ports according to French operators. From January, a work schedule is put in place for three months for repairs to thelock damaged. From now on, buyers are focusing on FOB Rhine instead of FOB Moselle. Note also a calm market and little business in the east of France on the French physical market. Finally, the weakness of the euro against the dollar provided no support to the rapeseed market.
The prices of sunflower on the physical market remain stable. As the end-of-year holidays approach, activity on this seed is at a standstill.
On the macroeconomic side, theeuro decline against the dollar by 1.34% for a parity of $1.35. Indeed, the US Central Bank (FED) wishes, after yesterday’s reduction of 25 basis points, to pause in lowering rates until June 2025 out of prudence. This direction should support the dollar for the coming months.
The courses of oil rose with the rebound in domestic demand in the United States, but the increase was tempered by the latest decisions of the FED.
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Commerce international :
- United States, soybean meal, sale : 120 000 t (source : USDA)
French physical markets from December 18, 2024 (July base for cereals)
| Sunflower | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux rendering | oleic Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 630,00 | N | 5,00 |
| Rendered Saint-Nazaire | oleic Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 630,00 | N | 5,00 |
| Rapeseed | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rendering Rouen | Harvest 2024 | Apr-June | 511,00 | N | -9,00 |
| Fob Moselle | Harvest 2024 | Apr-June | 508,50 | N |
| Soybean meals | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Departure Montoir | 48% pellets Brazil | dec. | 359,00 | V | -2,00 |
| 48% pellets Brazil | Jan. | 359,00 | V | -1,00 |
| Then | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Departure from Marne | forage Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 295,00 | N | 0,00 |
| Departure from Somme/Oise | forage Harvest 2024 | Dec-Mar | 295,00 | N | 0,00 |
Commercial quotes for dairy products from December 12, 2024
| Milk powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBPL departure at 30 days 5% H BT bulk | available. | 2520,00 | T |
| Whey powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | Variation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBPL departure at 30 days, BILA pH 6 bulk | available. | 865,00 | T |
Dollar/euro evolution of December 18, 2024
| Devise | Closing value |
|---|---|
| 1 dollar US | 0,9527 euro |
| 1 euro | 1,0496 dollar |
Chicago Futures Market Closes December 18, 2024
| Raw materials | Fence | Chicago |
|---|---|---|
| Military | 951,75 | cents/wood. |
| Soybean meals | 279,50 | $/t |
| Soybean oil | 39,55 | cts/livre |
Closing of the Euronext futures market on December 18, 2024
| Colza (Euronext) | |
|---|---|
| Echéance | Fence |
| Feb. 2025 | 520,75 |
| May 2025 | 506,75 |
| August 2025 | 457,50 |
| Volume | 32086 |
| Rapeseed oil (Euronext) | |
|---|---|
| Echéance | Fence |
| Mars 2023 | 698,50 |
| June 2023 | 698,50 |
| Sept. 2023 | 698,50 |
| Volume | 0 |
| Rapeseed meal (Euronext) | |
|---|---|
| Echéance | Fence |
| Mars 2023 | 196,25 |
| June 2023 | 196,25 |
| Sept. 2023 | 196,25 |
| Volume | 0 |
International market quotes from December 18, 2024
| Energy | Echéance | Closing value |
|---|---|---|
| Oil (Nymex) | Feb. 2025 | 70,02 $ |
| Ocean freight indices | from December 18 | Variation |
|---|---|---|
| Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 1028 | -25,00 |
| Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) | 957 | -2,00 |
| Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) | 1237 | -71,00 |
| Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) | 947 | -2,00 |
| Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) | 593 | -7,00 |
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