BAROMETER. Against all expectations, road transport prices started to rise again in November. They benefited from the increase in fuel prices and an increase in contract prices in France.
France continues to cross a tormented political period. In November, the priority objective of the then Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, was to give France a budget in 2025, and to contain the drift in the public deficit. In search of new resources, the government was ready to return to a strong marker of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency, the reduction in taxes for businesses, which greatly worried economic circles. The Finance bill was ultimately not voted on, because the government was the subject of a motion of censure on December 3, which led to the resignation of the Prime Minister.
Under these conditions, it is not surprising to see that business confidence fell for the second consecutive month. The business climate stood at 96 in November, losing 1 point as in October. It is thus moving away from its long-term average level (100). This drop reflects in particular the decline in the business climate in services (-2 points, after +2 points in October), in construction (-1 point, after +0 points), in retail trade including trade and repair automobiles (-1 point, after -1 point) and in wholesale trade (-2 points, after +2 points in September, this indicator being bimonthly). The S&P composite PMI index for overall activity in France only confirms pessimism. It actually decreased in November to 44.8, according to the flash publication of November 22, i.e. -3.3 points compared to October, and a ten-month low.
Clarification on transport prices
Despite this depressed business climate, road transport prices in France regained strength in November. They gained 2.3% month-on-month, after 2 successive declines: -1.2% in October and -2.5% in September.
This rise in prices is good news for transport companies, because many are facing a deterioration in their margins. But this development remains quite surprising in a context of zero consumption growth and soaring French savings. It must therefore be considered with caution at this stage.
The variation in the price of oil, which influences freight rates with a slight delay given the operation of the pass-on mechanism, may have played a role. Having been rising steadily for two months, professional diesel increased by 1.8% in both October and November. It almost returned to the level reached in August.
Source : Upply Freight Index – Route France
The average transport price per rolled kilometer of transport in France is therefore starting to rise again (…)
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