INTERVIEW. War in Ukraine: the assassination of Igor Kirillov in the heart of Moscow “proves that Putin is a colossus with feet of clay”

This Tuesday, December 17, Igor Kirillov was murdered in front of his home in Moscow. The commander of the Russian radionuclear, chemical and biological defense forces was the victim of an explosion. This is the first targeted attack against a senior Kremlin official on Russian territory. Vera Grantseva analyzes the scope of this assassination.

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La Dépêche du Midi: Is this a significant loss for Russia?

Vera Grantseva, political scientist, Russia specialist : Igor Kirillov was not a figure who influenced the Kremlin, and who could change the course of the war in Ukraine. He was sort of a spokesperson for the Department of Defense on the subject of chemical attacks and biological attacks. The loss is especially significant in terms of Putin’s image and reputation. This is what the Ukrainians were aiming for, they were not aiming for the character but the symbol.

Could this attack harm Putin?

This is a fairly high cost to the regime. The whole world sees that we can assassinate a lieutenant of Putin in the middle of Moscow. This reveals the extent to which the regime is unable to ensure the safety of its generals. This is the first time that a personality of this level has been assassinated on Russian soil. In July 2024, there was an officer hit, but he survived. And he wasn’t a lieutenant, he was a military intelligence officer who reports to the Ministry of Defense. Afterwards there were assassinations, but in the territory of Donetsk, like at the beginning of the month, with the murder of the director of the local prison.

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Are we to understand that there was a security breach?

Yes, and it gives us information about Putin’s regime. We imagine him invincible, very well organized and guaranteeing high level security to his people, but this is only true for himself and perhaps his oligarch friends. For others, there are obvious security vulnerabilities. This echoes the Prigozhin mutiny: for many it was a shock, but not for me. Putin is a colossus with feet of clay. Yes, the system seems very powerful and seems to control everything, but this is not true for the security of its generals.

Should we expect other attacks of this type on Russian soil?

Ukraine has not claimed anything but we can think that it will continue. We saw that the Ukrainians were capable of succeeding and that they had a network. And then, this is their way of terrifying the Russian command and elites.

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What repercussions can we fear?

There weren’t too many repercussions for the previous attacks. What can Putin do? I don’t think he can hit targets in Ukraine. His only response is to attack cities, but we see that he is starting to run out of missiles. I think that the regime’s reaction will mainly be in the media. The Foreign Ministry will denounce this act of terrorism and perhaps try to accuse the Ukrainians at the UN.

Could the assassination have consequences on Putin’s popularity in Russia?

Most Russians live in an information bubble… Two subjects could have worried the Kremlin: the mobilization and Prigozhin’s mutiny, but it only had a very limited impact. Even the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk did not trigger any reactions. On the other hand, there is a small minority of ultranationalists (5-10% of public opinion) who will be outraged and revolted by this act, but their weight is minimal and they are under the control of the Kremlin… conclusion, it will not significantly shake up the political landscape in Russia.