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The Middle East is witnessing a marked return of armed militias, supported by regional or international powers, which are reorganizing the balance of forces and threatening the stability of already fragile countries. These armed groups, which combine ideological, confessional or tribal allegiance, have emerged or resurfaced thanks to state collapses, civil wars or foreign interventions. In Lebanon, the impact of this regional dynamic is all the more sensitive as the country bears the memory of past conflicts where militias played a central role.
Militias supported by regional actors
The revival of militias in the Middle East can be explained by the vacuum left by weakened or failing states. Regional powers like Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, as well as international actors, exploit these loopholes to expand their influence by proxy. In Yemen, for example, the Houthis receive Iranian support which allows them to challenge the coalition led by Riyadh. In Iraq, pro-Iranian militias shape the local political landscape, while in Syria, various factions have thrived during the civil war. These non-state formations become geopolitical levers for their support, without direct military engagement being necessary.
Lebanon and the weight of Hezbollah
In Lebanon, the presence of Hezbollah illustrates the complexity of the militia question. Originally a resistance force against Israel, Hezbollah has evolved into a key political player, equipped with a sophisticated military arsenal. It has long benefited from Iranian logistical and financial support, reinforced by the Syrian rear base. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of actors like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have weakened Hezbollah’s strategic depth. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, replaced by Naim Kassem, more aligned with Iran, further weakens this group. The loss of charisma and the distance from complex logistical support are modifying the internal balance of Lebanon.
The risk of increased fragmentation
The militias, with strong external support, threaten to worsen Lebanon’s political and community fragmentation. Other formations could emerge if the State is not able to ensure security, justice and prosperity. The confessional system, already pointed out as a factor of paralysis, facilitates the maintenance of these armed entities ready to defend their community interests. The country risks reliving past scenarios where rival militias clashed, each manipulated by a foreign power seeking to direct Lebanese politics.
Multiple interferences and influences
The proliferation of militias in the Middle East offers foreign powers a range of indirect levers. Factions supported by Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or other actors are proliferating. Each seeks to control segments of territory, strategic routes or cross-border crossing points. Lebanon, a natural crossroads between the Mediterranean and the interior, becomes a target of choice. Militias, competing for control of smuggling networks, areas of political influence or resources, could further destabilize the country, already in deep economic and political crisis.
Socio-economic impact
The return of militias threatens Lebanon’s economic stability. Already hit by a massive devaluation of its currency, a brain drain and galloping impoverishment, the country cannot afford a new outbreak of violence. The militias, through their armed presence, hinder reconstruction, frighten investors, undermine the authority of the State and fuel a climate of permanent insecurity. Arms trafficking, corruption and the establishment of parallel redistribution structures would exacerbate social and community tensions.
The ambiguous role of Hezbollah post-Nasrallah
After the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, a charismatic figure, Hezbollah, under the leadership of Naim Kassem, seems more docile towards Iran and less able to embody a coherent national project. This internal transition weakens the Shiite group, which could face internal rivalries or challenge from new militias seeking to assert themselves. The fragile balance between Lebanese political forces would be compromised, making the emergence of competing militias financed by other regional actors, ready to take advantage of the situation, even more likely.
Lack of a strong state
The return of the militias can also be explained by the absence of a strong Lebanese state capable of monopolizing legitimate violence. The Lebanese armed forces, under-equipped, cannot control the entire territory or face heavily armed military formations. Militias take advantage of the security vacuum, sometimes replacing state institutions, providing protection or services to certain communities. This dynamic strengthens their roots to the detriment of state authority, fueling a vicious circle where the weakness of the state and the presence of militias mutually reinforce each other.
Open perspectives
The return of militias to the Middle East, a symptom of regional reconfigurations and state weaknesses, marks a new era of potential instability. For Lebanon, this dynamic is particularly worrying. Already weakened by economic, political and social crises, the country could become the scene of clashes between militias supported by regional powers with divergent interests. Without a strengthening of the State, an overhaul of the confessional system and international support, Lebanon risks witnessing a new fragmentation, where each armed faction will serve as a geopolitical instrument for external actors seeking to reshape the map of the Middle East. East.
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