This is a snub for Vladimir Putin. Ukraine claimed responsibility for a targeted attack which claimed the life of a 54-year-old high-ranking Russian officer on Tuesday in Moscow. General Igor Kirillov, commander of the Russian army’s radiological, biological and chemical defense forces, was killed in a scooter bomb explosion. On Monday, kyiv indicted him for war crimes, accusing him of having supervised the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian soldiers.
The end of great Russian ambitions in the Middle East
This assassination brings the war a little closer to Russian soil despite the efforts of those in power to minimize its impact in Russia. It comes at a time when Vladimir Putin has been weakened on the international scene since the fall of his ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The war in Ukraine mobilizes all the Russian forces which no longer have the means to fight on several fronts at the same time. This blatant failure in Syria signals the end of Russia’s great ambitions in the Middle East.
After this humiliating setback, however, the Kremlin is negotiating with the rebels whom it recently bombed. Russia hopes to keep its two military bases in Syria, which are very useful for its operations in Africa.
Fighting redoubles before Trump’s arrival
Russian soldiers, who are suffering heavy losses, are not numerous enough in Ukraine, despite attractive bonuses and salaries. Thousands of North Korean soldiers arriving as reinforcements are deployed in the Kursk region, to help Vladimir Putin retake this portion of Russian territory occupied for several months by Ukraine, where Moscow is announcing a major counter-offensive. Russian troops, however, continue to gain ground in Ukraine against an army that is inferior in number and weapons. They are now at the gates of the strategic city of Pokrovsk.
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The fighting is intensifying on the eve of Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House. The master of the Kremlin wants to be in a position of strength before possible peace negotiations that the new American president wants to impose on the belligerents by threatening to reduce United States support for Ukraine.
The ruble is collapsing
The attack on Moscow comes at a time when the Russian economy is weakened and begins to suffer from international sanctions after having been driven by the war effort. Growth remains sustained (3.6% this year as in 2023) but the lack of labor and rising wages are fueling inflation which reaches 8.8% in 2024. The ruble is collapsing and the president of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, fears an overheating economy because of a budget increasing by 15.5 billion dollars in 2025, mainly to finance military spending.
Vladimir Putin will not be able to ask the Russians for sacrifices forever. It is therefore in his interest for the war to stop by taking advantage of the new situation represented by the entry into office of Donald Trump.
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