The inauguration is approaching, and anxiety is growing for trans people in the United States. While Donald Trump will become president again on January 20, the threat is becoming clearer. The Republican affirmed on Sunday that he wanted to stop the “transgender delirium” and affirmed that he would sign “decrees to put an end to sexual mutilation of children, exclude transgender people from the army and exclude them from primary schools, middle schools and high schools “. By “sexual mutilation”, the billionaire means surgeries intended for minors to allow them to conform to their perceived identity, extremely rare operations, and intended to avoid suicide attempts, in critical cases.
But can Donald Trump really change the law on his own, and exclude trans people from the army, from school or prevent adolescents from accessing gender reassignment surgeries?
Obamacare should be undone
On the medical front, we could imagine Donald Trump cutting funds from federal programs, such as Medicaid, for the least well-off people. But, interviewed by NPR radio, a law professor at the University of Toledo in Ohio indicated in November that Medicaid in reality depends largely on the states. Prohibiting care for a certain population would also likely require undoing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, nicknamed “Obamacare,” which contains anti-discrimination provisions. Remember that Donald Trump only has a narrow majority in Congress.
Any medical decision for trans minors is also subject to a decision from the Supreme Court, which should probably arrive in June. The court must rule on a law adopted in 2023 by the state of Tennessee (south) prohibiting transgender minors from accessing puberty blockers and hormonal transition treatments. Minors and their families denounced the “discriminatory” nature of this state’s law, in a context where nearly half of American states have enacted similar or similar legislation. Tennessee, for its part, claims to be responding to an “explosion of gender dysphoria diagnoses” and wishes to prevent the risks of potentially irreversible consequences of these treatments. “It is likely that the Supreme Court will say that the decision should be left in fine to the States”, judge Margaux Bouaziz, lecturer at the University of Burgundy, specialist in French and American constitutional law.
Unraveling the Civil Rights Act
Regarding the army, Donald Trump succeeded in preventing new trans people from joining it in 2019, but the ban was defeated by the Biden administration. This time, it is about going even further and also excluding people currently in office. The ban would affect around 15,000 people, according to The Times.
To achieve this, law professor Benjamin Moron-Puech, a specialist in discrimination, believes that Donald Trump will undoubtedly have to pass a law to modify Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which covers cases of discrimination in the field. of work, and in particular those against transgender people since a Court ruling in 2020. “It would be necessary to justify that this category of people poses problems linked to the army. This will be more difficult to establish than for medical treatments. But they can still get away with saying that it is a question of national security,” said Margaux Bouaziz.
Pressure on schools
At school, a text was adopted in the House of Representatives which provides for parental agreement to change a student's first name or pronouns or to allow a student to use toilets that do not correspond to their gender assigned at birth. It will still require the agreement of the Senate, where the Republicans are in the majority, even if the majority is short. But even without this vote, Donald Trump can already play on school subsidies, via the civil rights office of the Ministry of National Education, which will have the mission of threatening establishments which do not apply a conservative vision of the laws on discrimination, as the businessman promised. Generally, establishments fold, it is understood Washington Post.
“School desegregation was mandated at the federal level and the federal government funds education. But to improve funding for schools that have programs for trans people, they will need to find legal qualification, explains Margaux Bouaziz. Congress could repeal the law that prohibits discrimination based on sex, but I don't think there is a majority for that. Or he could amend it by saying it doesn't apply to trans people. »
Record of hostile texts
Donald Trump's announcements on schools are not new. During a meeting at Madison Square Garden on October 27 in New York, he had already promised to “bring out the transgender madness [des] schools”. Many gay, transgender or even non-binary people experience the second election of the Republican candidate as a blow and an attack on their community. The LGBT National Help Center received about 2,000 calls a day after its victory in November, instead of the usual 300.
The number of anti-trans legislation has exploded in the United States, with the year 2024 bringing together a record number of texts hostile to this minority. According to the site translegislation.com, nearly 669 anti-trans texts have been introduced in 43 states, of which nearly 139 are active.
