Are you ready for three NFL against-the-spread betting picks for this weekend?
Let's not waste any time and dive straight into my picks:
PICK #1: Ravens -6
In the battle for the AFC North title, I'm betting on the Baltimore Ravens with a six-point spread against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Yes, even as a statistician, I will go against the numbers:
- The last nine meetings between these two rivals have been decided by a margin of seven points or less.
- The Ravens have scored 19 points or fewer in their most recent eight matchups against Pittsburgh.
- The Steelers have beaten Baltimore in seven of the last eight games.
All signs seem to point to betting on the Steelers. And yet, I'm going to opt for the Ravens for Saturday's game. For what? Let me explain:
First, Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson has been less convincing recently. He hasn't surpassed 160 passing yards in his last two starts, with his completion percentage dropping.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has thrown 34 touchdown passes against three interceptions so far in 2024. And that's not even taking into account his rushing stats.
The Steelers will also be on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. Granted, none of these trips were very far, but it still involved travel.
Last week, Pittsburgh took a beating at Philadelphia, while the Ravens had the luxury of resting some starters in a blowout win over the Giants. In short, they will be much better rested.
The status of George Pickens and TJ Watt remains uncertain as I write this. Without Pickens, the offense lacks power. Without Watt, the team would lose its heart and soul. Given that Watt is dealing with a sprained ankle, it could affect the quality of his game if he plays.
For these reasons, I expect Lamar and company to finally find the solution against Mike Tomlin's defense. I'm betting on the Ravens to win by a margin of at least six points.
CHOIX #2 : Bears +7
I also like the Chicago Bears as seven-point underdogs at Soldier Field against the Detroit Lions.
Michigan's offense has been much less effective when playing away from home. Additionally, it is forecast to be very cold in Chicago on Sunday.
Additionally, the Lions are decimated by injuries to an unimaginable extent. They already had 13 players on the injured list, including standout Aidan Hutchinson, before bad luck struck again in a loss to the Buffalo Bills last week.
Running back David Montgomery's season is over. The team also lost three other starters on defense: Alim McNeill, Carlton Davis and Khalil Dorsey. They are forced to call on players who were sitting on their sofa a few weeks ago.
Granted, the Bears have lost eight games in a row, which makes this bet uncomfortable.
But you may be surprised to know that in his last four games, freshman quarterback Caleb Williams has thrown eight touchdown passes against no interceptions. He has weapons around him like D'Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet. Given Detroit's diminished defense, these guys will find a way to score points.
Also keep in mind that before their loss to the Bills, the Lions had won their previous two games by an exact margin of three points. The Detroit train slows down, and it is badly damaged.
This is why I choose to bet on Chicago +7 points in front of its home crowd this weekend. Although they are eliminated, the players are not going to throw in the towel. They will be playing at home against a division rival, and I expect them to give their best effort.
PICK #3: Titans +3.5
The Indianapolis Colts have low playoff hopes. They absolutely have to win this weekend against the Titans. After analyzing this match, I decided to make the following choice: I take the Tennessee club +3.5.
Indianapolis has won six games so far this season. Let's take a look at the margin of victory for these matches: 5, 3, 3, 6, 1 and 1. As you can see, they are not dominating their opponents.
Anthony Richardson is a frustrating prospect. Sometimes he's fantastic and turns you on. Then he loses the ball or misses an open target.
The pivot missed a few matches at the end of October. Upon his return, he played well with 272 passing yards against the Jets. Since then, he has not exceeded 175 passing yards in a game, with two touchdowns against four interceptions. In his last three starts, he completed 40 of 90 passes for a mediocre percentage of 44%.
Alec Pierce, one of the most productive targets, entered the concussion protocol. We don't know if he will be able to participate in this duel.
Meanwhile, head coach Brian Callahan decided to change quarterbacks. He's had enough of Will Levis, nicknamed the ball-losing machine.
Veteran Mason Rudolph takes over. After entering the game last week, he completed 21 of 26 passes. It is more conservative than Levis, but it causes less ball loss.
Tennessee's defense is also a decent unit. I think they can keep this game close enough to cover the 3.5 point spread.
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend, my sports bettor friends!
