By 2024, air traffic in Europe had fallen to 5 million. 5 years later, it should exceed the 2019 figures. © Philippe Stroppa / Studio Pons for Groupe ADP
Eurocontrol regularly reviews its forecasts for IFR movements in Europe. The agency foresees three scenarios for the evolution of air traffic, a basic scenario, a pessimistic one and a more optimistic one. Taking the base case scenario, Eurocontrol predicts that IFR movements in Europe will return to their 2019 level in 2025. In 2030, the agency forecasts 11.2 million movements in Europe.
In 2019, before the pandemic, Eurocontrol recorded 11.1 million IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) movements in Europe. For 2024, the number of flights under IFR regime planned in the 44 member countries of the ECAC (European Civil Aviation Conference) amounts to 10.7 million, an increase of 5.1% (±0.7pp) per year. compared to 2023 (96% of 2019 levels).
Eurocontrol notes that many states, particularly in the southeast, are experiencing significantly higher recovery rates and have already exceeded the 2019 baseline figures recorded before the pandemic.
Between the months of April and August 2024, the number of flights was higher than predicted by Eurocontrol in February this year. These data allow the agency to expect a return to 2019 figures in Europe in 2025 in its base scenario.
In 2030, Eurocontrol’s baseline forecast predicts traffic amounting to 11.2 million IFR movements in Europe, or 102% of 2019 figures. The optimistic forecast foresees a return to 2019 figures by the end of 2024.
However, the agency remains cautious in particular with regard to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon and Gaza, which require companies to make road improvements. Eurcontrol’s pessimistic scenario predicts that IFR movements will only reach their 2019 level after 2030.
