If you are considering purchasing an electric vehicle, good news: their price will drop significantly in the coming years. In any case, this is what an analysis from Goldman Sachs explains to us. According to its report, the average cost of batteries will drop from $149 per kWh in 2023 to $80 per kWh by 2026. A reduction of almost 50% which can be explained by two factors.
On the one hand, technological progress now allows to produce batteries offering 30% more energy capacity, while reducing costs. Innovations like technology « cell-to-pack » simplify production and increase energy density.
On the other, the drop in the price of green metals, which represent 60% of the cost of batteriesalso plays a key role. After a period of increase between 2020 and 2023, the prices of materials such as lithium and cobalt are falling.
The production price of EV batteries will drop drastically
Today, the electric vehicle battery market is dominated by lithium technologies. Nickel-based batteries occupy around 60% of the market, while lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries account for 35-40%. Sodium-ion batteries are also promising, but their production still remains limited.
While it was thought that solid electrolyte batteries would revolutionize the sector, their development has lagged behind. As a result, existing lithium technologies would strengthenwith a projected 45% market share for LFP batteries by 2025.
The battery sector is difficult to enter: the development cycle lasts more than 10 years, from research to production. Additionally, large-scale production and lack of skilled labor represent major obstacles. This is why around five actors control almost 80% of world production.
The price of an electric vehicle will be comparable to that of a thermal one
According to Goldman Sachs, by 2026, the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle is expected to be comparable to that of a thermal vehicle in countries like the United States. In the short term, regulations could push the adoption of electric vehicles, but from 2026, it is above all the economic interest which should convince consumers. As a reminder, in France, there is aid such as social leasing which has been renewed in 2025. Manufacturers are trying to offer affordable models like the BYD Sealion 07 and its €24,530 after price conversion.
This drop in battery prices could therefore accelerate the transition to electric vehicles and fundamentally transform the automotive industry. As a reminder, several indicators already tell us that sales will explode in 2025.
Source : Goldman Sachs
