Moscow would “probably” be capable of attacking NATO by 2030, German secret services warn

German secret services alerted Europe on Monday regarding the growing danger that they believe Moscow’s interference on the continent represents, particularly regarding a potential direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO from 2030.

Increased acts of espionage and sabotage, but above all a possible military confrontation with NATO from 2030. The German secret services were alarmist on Monday in the face of the growing danger that, according to them, Moscow’s interference in Germany and Europe represents.

At an annual hearing before German MPs, the country’s three intelligence chiefs painted a gloomy picture for Europe, as the war in Ukraine soon marks three years and conflict appears to be brewing in the Middle East.

“It’s burning almost everywhere,” summarized the head of Domestic Intelligence (BfV), Thomas Haldenwang, regarding the threats coming from outside – Russia, China, Iran – as well as from within with radical Islam and extreme right.

Intelligence officials have been particularly vocal about Moscow’s protean interference in Germany in the context of the war in Ukraine, to which Germany is the second largest arms supplier after the United States.

“Whether we like it or not: we are in direct conflict with Russia,” the head of the German spy and counter-espionage services (BND), Bruno Kahl, did not hesitate to declare.

Germany increasingly targeted

“Russian espionage and sabotage are increasing in Germany, both quantitatively and qualitatively,” added Thomas Haldenwang. And for good reason, Germany has been shaken by several alleged cases of espionage for the benefit of Russia in particular since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In April, two men with Russian and German nationality were indicted for planning acts of sabotage for Russia, including at a US army base, to undermine German aid to Ukraine.

Thomas Haldenwang has accused Moscow of being behind the case of a package which caught fire at a center of the carrier DHL in Leipzig (east) in July before its planned transport by plane.

If the package “had exploded on board during the flight,” he said, “there would have been a crash and the debris could have hit all the people here in Germany who sympathize with Vladimir Putin and his regime, openly and secretly. Thomas Haldenwang also mentioned disinformation campaigns and cases of use of spy drones.

From “storm”, the Russian threat has “become a real hurricane” which moves “from east to west”, he added in a metaphor with the Baltic States and Poland, where Russian actions “are very much more brutal than they are now here.

The president of the Military Counterespionage Service (Bamad), Martina Rosenberg, reported a “significant increase in acts of espionage and sabotage” targeting the German army. Moscow is thus seeking in particular to find out about “deliveries of German arms to Ukraine” and to “create a feeling of insecurity”, according to it. And the Kremlin “is preparing for a further escalation in terms of hybrid and secret actions,” said Bruno Kahl.

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