“We did not do anything for 40 years …”

“We did not do anything for 40 years …”


Arizona places the financing of the Belgian armed forces as one of the priorities of the legislature. But the defense has suffered from constant divestment for decades. Measuring NATO’s requests is “utopian in the current state of things”, contrasts an expert. The gap could even increase very soon.

He believes that Europe was “lazy” in defense, and that Vladimir Putin had “awakened”. He, it was Bart de Wever, Belgian Prime Minister, who did not fail to display his high ambitions on the issue … barely two hours after his entry into office, at an informal European summit in Brussels. That is to say if the subject burned his lips.

Arizona: from worst student to NATO model ally in 5 years?

“Give back an NATO model ally”. This is the displayed ambition of lord in its government agreement. In all likelihood, the era of Wever could therefore be the one where the defense becomes a central pillar of the Belgian government’s investments … after long desert years. But the realization of intentions promises to be dotted with pitfalls and financial holes. The abstract to be filled is immense, and could still increase.

In a tense geopolitical context, Belgium seems to want to be part of the movement of Collective Awakening of Europe To ensure its defense capacity, faced with the tough Russian threat to the doors of the EU and decreasing support from the United States under Trump.

The flat country accuses a colossal delay: it is The worst student among all NATO members (barely ahead of Luxembourg) in his investment for defense. With 1.3% you pib Dedicated to the military effort, Belgium thus remains very far from the objective imposed on the members of the Atlantic Alliance (2% minimum). For comparison, Poland is 4.1%, Estonia and the United States at 3.4%, Greece at 3.1%, France and Germany at 2.1%. Of the 23 NATO members, sixteen currently respect the 2%threshold … that Trump would like to go up to 5%.

In its government agreement, Arizona traces an accelerated growth trajectory at 2% of GDP for defense expenses by 2029 (“at the latest”) and 2.5% in 2034 (“at the latest”). But when reading the document, the intentions sometimes remain laconic. They offer few encrypted objectives, few concrete explanations on funding, but on the other hand a lot of literature on European cooperation or innovation.

“The desire for acceleration compared to the Vivaldi is clear, but This acceleration remains slower than that of other European countries. In 2024, the European average was already greater than 2%, ”notes Wally Struys, professor emeritus at the Royal Military School (ERM), specialist in the defense economy.

According to corridor noises, NATO is preparing to request an investment of 3% of GDP from each member country at its next summit, which would still accentuate the gap to fill for Belgium. The countries of the eastern flank of Europe, concerned in the foreground by the Russian threat, grow in this sense.

Wally Struys is mainly surprised by lack of precision as to the financing of new objectives. “I don’t see how the government intends to do it. The sale of state assets, mentioned here and there, remains too vague, “he says.

Opposing Defense and Social Protection makes no sense

The professor pleads for structural funding. “Contrary to what we often hear, It is wrong to assert that funding the defense induces a reduction in social spending. Opposing them does not make sense. “

According to him, the competing expenses of the defense are more in communities and regions. “These are the expenses that have increased the most since 1995. those of the defense have increased the least since that date (NDRL: they only decreased, apart from 2022). “Defense is far from competing with social spending in the priorities of the Belgian State: Only 1.78% of global public spending is devoted to the Defense function, against 37.66% for social protection. If we add to the latter the health function, we even arrive at 52.48%, ”calculates the specialist in a recent analysis.

The unfavorable status of the defense is confirmed in the figures. “The increase in its purchasing power reaches barely 8.71%, which contrasts strongly with the increases observed in health (120.08%) and social security (87.02%). It was only in 2022 that the purchasing power of the defense exceeded that of 1995… thanks to Putin. ”

According to Wally Struys, the social defense-protection opposition therefore does not have to be. “In 2022, the defense budget represented around 1,000 euros per family, 30 times less than health and social protection expenses. This puts into perspective the alleged rivalry. ”

The N-VA is now in power, it will obviously not relate to community spending, in principle. “Now, this is where there are the most double jobs and waste. Intellectually, this is where you have to look for, but politically, it will be not. I therefore hardly see how, structurally, Arizona will arrive at 2.5% of GDP within 9 years ”, déduit Wally Struys.

Arizona wants to invest in NATO: F-35, anti-aircraft frigate and defense

Among the few concrete ads of Arizona for La Défense, we will however note the desire to buy Additional F-35 (We are talking about eleven new planes to meet the expectations of NATO), A third frigate or anti-aircraft artillery… Without more details. “These arrivals are not anyway for tomorrow, while Putin is at the gates of Europe.”

We can however ask the question of whether the choice of persevere with the F-35 is justified, despite its high cost and the big delays in delivery it suffers. Yes, for Wally Struys, who puts forward practical reasons. “The French Rafale, suggested by some, would now be a bad choice, because most European countries have opted for the F-35. For a common air defensethe best is to have standardized equipment. ”

In addition, drones can now be armed, and are therefore no longer used for simple recognition. “But these drones are too big And not very handy, judges the professor. You have to invest in smaller drones, both for observation and attack. A 1,000 euros drone destroys a combat helicopter costing hundreds of thousands of euros, he illustrates. Massive investment in drones must therefore be a priority. ”

40 years of disinvestment

The recovery of Belgian defense resembles a mined land. “When we started to give ammunition to the Ukrainians at the start of the conflict, we realized … that we no longer had enough for ourselves. To reach the level requested by NATO, it takes seven to eight billion, ”, the expert. For whom “It is utopian that Belgium becomes a good NATO student in the current state of things. Not before 20 years old. We have accumulated a delay which does not rewrite in a few years. We must catch up 40 years of disinvestment. ”

Especially since the gradual postponement of the retirement of the military retired is likely to discourage more than one. “We risk attending a staff leak at the end of their careerscombined with a difficulty of attracting and maintaining young people in thepredicts Wally Struys. Buy new equipment, but have no one to use it … it is useless. ”

The main lines of the Government Agreement for Defense

Lord reiterates his support for Ukraineand wishes to ensure the delivery of the first F-16s by the end of this year (the first of the 30 planned should have been delivered in 2024).

On the national level, The government aims at 29,100 employees by 2030in accordance with the star plan. Arizona wants that defense becomes “an attractive employer», With in particular an “improved reserve”, or one more A “voluntary service of 12 months”. “We are using an uncertain future by deploying, in the years to come, the efforts necessary to improve our resilience,” we can read.

The agreement emphasizes The importance of cooperation:

– Build a strong European pillar without overlapping structures;

– interoperability of capacities between allies;

– standardization of weapons systems;

– Permanent structured cooperation mechanism (PESCO);

– Development of a military schengen;

– Deployment of common capacities, such as the camo partnership with France.

To achieve financing of the star plan, “a new effort will be necessary”, warns Arizona, which announces “the creation of a defense fund. “

Also appear in the program: The reconstruction of ammunition stocks and other strategic stocks and acceleration of existing investment programs Until satisfying the expectations of our allies.

Concretely, the government says it wants to invest in A air defense system on several levels, fighter planesadditional transport aircraft, “in the armament and extension of Our fleet of armed drones and systems (…) In An operational helicopter fleeta third frigateambitious tools to combat mines and capacities to lead Electronic war and in operational capacities for our “white fleet”. ”

The motorized brigade will also be reinforced. “In the medium term, we want to be able to put a (second) brigade available to NATO.”

Increased investment effort requires an effective purchasing policyinsists the agreement, “in order to avoid unnecessary delays in the delivery of the capacities. ” (Editor’s note: the reference to the delivery delays of the F-35 is here more than explicit).

Belgium also wants become “a logistics hub for the NATO alliance”, “Stimulate the development of (anti-anti-) drone technology and the development of counter-ground strategies to be used in the air, on land, at sea and underwater.”

“We support the development of industrial capacities For the accelerated production of ammunition and weapons systems. To do this, we establish strategic partnerships with the producers in order to have equipment that is always ready, ”announces the agreement.

Related Articles