While the calendar autumn of 2024 will begin, as is traditionally the case, on September 21, the meteorological autumn will begin this Sunday, September 1, and end at the end of November. What weather should France expect during these three months? Météo France and several other weather forecasting offices have recently published elements providing some indications.
An overall warmer than normal autumn
In terms of temperatures, Météo France expects autumn to be warmer than seasonal norms, based on the climate of the years 1991-2020. “Anticyclonic conditions are expected to be more frequent from the near Atlantic to south-west Europe, therefore, over the whole of France, the warmer than normal scenario is the most likely »explains the weather forecasting office in its latest three-month trends.
According to Météo France, this “warmer than normal” scenario has in fact 50 % chance of occurring against 33% in a scenario in which no particular index would be detected (since Météo France trends consist of measuring the chances of occurrence of three scenarios: hotter, cooler or in line with normal).
The image below, which presents the synthesis of forecasts from about ten models, confirms that the next quarter should see what climatologists call a positive temperature anomaly, i.e. temperatures above normal. This anomaly should, however, be of a fairly limited magnitude.
“The temperatures forecast in France for this autumn should remain barely above the seasonal averages, with a difference of around +0.5°C”, confirmed The Weather Channel .
For its part, Météo France specifies that the risk of experiencing a milder than normal quarter is increased in the south of France (70% chance).
Fresher episodes still possible
As Météo France points out, the fact that the quarter is announced as potentially warmer than average does not rule out the possibility that cooler episodes may occur occasionally, depending on the weather conditions.
And for good reason, “these three-month trends do not allow us to predict the details of the weather conditions for the coming months day by day or even week by week”.
Towards a relatively dry autumn in the south
Concerning precipitation, always more difficult to predict than temperatures (because they are volatile and often very localized), the first forecasts suggest that the next quarter should be relatively dry in the south of the country.
“However, this scenario does not exclude the occurrence of occasional episodes with locally significant rainfall”warns Météo France. In this regard, Météo Villes indicates for example that the end of September should be relatively humid near the Mediterranean. The Weather Channel evokes a month marked by instability and therefore by potential storms.
As for the northern part of the country, no scenario is favoured at the moment, even if the north-east of France could see more disturbances than the south and west, protected by the high pressure centres of the near Atlantic.
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