Will the European Union put France against the wall in 2025?

For several weeks, faced with the outlines drawn by the European Commission, concerning the creation of a single Defense market, within the framework of the EDIP program, the French defense ecosystem is in turmoil.

This initiative by Ursula von der Leyen is based, in fact, on the creation of a unified market, in Europe, intended to supervise major army equipment programs, to increase the European share, today very insufficient, and to improve its application, with reduced prices and deadlines, as well as better interoperability.

For Paris, however, such a trajectory would mark the end of French strategic autonomy, inherited from Gaullism, and of national prerogatives in arbitration in matters of defense equipment, with the very real risk of seeing the industry of French defense would dissolve into a European bloc which would not, at the same time, have achieved strategic autonomy itself.

Indeed, on the side of the commission as of a large majority of European countries, there is no question of excluding the United States and Great Britain from this common arms market, Washington still being perceived as the protective pivot of NATO, in all European capitals except one, Paris.

What are the mechanisms at work in this very complex matter? Does France have the means to influence the decisions of the European Commission in this matter? And, what would be the alternatives for Paris, faced with a European majority against its positions?

The observation: Europeans mainly equip themselves with military equipment designed or manufactured outside Europe

Several reports have emerged in recent years to show Europe's very fragile position in terms of defense, and more especially, defense equipment. Thus, IRIS estimated, in September 2023, that European armies had devoted 78% of their equipment credits to acquiring equipment designed and/or produced outside Europe, in 2022 and 2023, including 65% for European equipment.

In March 2024, the SIPRI report went in the same direction, estimating that European arms imports had experienced a jump of 94% over the period of 2019-2023, compared to the previous period, 2014-2018. , including an increase of 35% for equipment of American origin alone.

It is true that on the sidelines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a number of European armies announced very significant acquisition programs for American military equipment, whether air defense systems, missiles, armored vehicles, artillery systems, helicopters and, above all, aircraft, in particular the omnipresent F-35, now chosen by more than half of European air forces.

A more recent study, from the IISS, however, tends to moderate these assertions somewhat, by estimating the share of imported equipment for the European armies at only 52%, including 34% for the United States, since 2022. on the basis of a broader study, not limited only to major equipment programs.

It was, however, the Draghi report, published in September 2024, which finally convinced the president of the new European Commission to provide the European Union with a Commissioner dedicated to the defense and space mission, a position attributed to the former -Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, and to entrust his Estonian counterpart Kaja Kallas with the post of high representative of the Union for foreign policy and security affairs.

The European solution: a single EDIP Defense market, to increase equipment flows, reduce costs and increase the European share

To respond to this observation, the President of the European Commission, supported by her two Baltic allies, have developed a program aimed at supervising and harmonizing defense equipment acquisition programs within the Union.

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