The candidates for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party have a lot of work to do to convince residents of the Quebec region that they are the right drivers to lead the party in the next provincial elections.
A SOM probe-The Sun conducted among 1,265 respondents from the metropolitan region of Quebec reveals that the two candidates who court them the most, the Lévisien Charles Millard and the aspiring deputy for Bellechasse Denis Coderre, are struggling to carve out a place in the hearts of voters in the greater capital region.
They respectively obtained the favor of 10% and 4% of the citizens of the Quebec region surveyed, while the former Montreal minister and federal deputy Pablo Rodriguez was the choice of 20% of them.
The Matanese tax expert Marc Bélanger obtained 3% of the support.
If they were candidates, the options “none of these people” and “I don’t know” would be far ahead, together totaling the opinion of some 61% of respondents.
The vice-president and head of business strategy at SOM, Éric Lacroix, however, does not believe that the candidates should be overly concerned about the high rate of voters in the Quebec region who do not seem interested in the candidates. liberal leaders.
“Those who don’t vote are probably not Liberal Party voters, so they didn’t vote for them and they probably don’t intend to do so either,” he summarizes, emphasizing that the next leader will be determined by the members, not the general population.
A question of notoriety
Mr. Lacroix analyzes that the data collected, favorable to Pablo Rodriguez, are mainly due to the notoriety enjoyed by the former federal minister, particularly in the face of Charles Milliard, much less known to the general public.
«[Pablo Rodriguez] still leaves with a good head start compared to Mr. Milliard because he is better known.”
-— Éric Lacroix, vice-president and head of business strategy at SOM
But that could change as the race progresses if the latter manages to stand out and make himself known, he believes. “But once again, it is the Liberal members who vote, not all the voters,” recalls the analyst.
Charles Milliard, former president of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of Quebec, is trying to present himself as the region’s candidate in the liberal race, highlighting his Lévis roots. (Caroline Grégoire/Archives Le Soleil)
Unlike Charles Milliard, the former mayor of Montreal Denis Coderre would perhaps benefit from a little less visibility, believes Éric Lacroix. “In his case, it’s not a lack of notoriety, that’s clear”
Despite his attempts to seduce the Quebec region by repeating being in favor of the third link and against the tramway on all platforms and by launching his campaign in Quebec, “Denis Coderre, definitely, does not have the support of people in the region,” says Éric Lacroix.
“He now has a notoriety which is associated with a negative connotation,” he analyzes, explaining it by his problems with the tax authorities. “I feel like his candidacy is definitely in jeopardy.”
The next leader of the Quebec Liberal Party will be chosen by the members on June 14.
This survey was conducted from January 15 to 17, 2025 among 1,265 French-speaking Quebec adults in the Quebec census metropolitan area (CMA). The sample was drawn from the SOM gold panel, which is made up of individuals recruited randomly by telephone (landline and cell phone). The data was weighted to best reflect the characteristics of the population according to age, sex, household size, education, housing (owner/renter) and geographic area. The maximum margin of error, for all respondents, is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
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