Faced with a year 2024 marked by extreme floods and droughts, the need to understand and anticipate future fluctuations in water demand in France has become imperative. In this context, a study commissioned by the Prime Minister in the fall of 2023 proposes three prospective scenarios for water use from 2020 to 2050, considering different responses to the challenges posed by climate change.
The France Stratégie report on the future of water demand in France stands out for its collaborative approach. Bringing together experts, farmers, industrialists, energy producers and environmental associations, this work is based on broad consultation to identify the most realistic and suitable scenarios. The hypotheses and results were presented and debated within the National Water Committee, thus ensuring validation by key stakeholders and recognition of their validity at the highest level.
Water demand scenarios by 2050
in the most unfavorable climatic configuration studied, in percentage, source: France Stratégie.
Extending current practices, this scenario anticipates a slight increase in withdrawals (+1%), mainly due to the increase in irrigation needs. This continuity suggests gradual adaptation to changing climatic conditions without major reforms. However, this approach may not be sufficient in the long term given the expected intensification of periods of drought and heat waves.
In contrast, the “public policy” scenario proposes a 24% reduction in withdrawals thanks to active policies, while the “disruptive” scenario envisages a drastic reduction (-47%) by adopting a radical water conservation approach, reflecting a strong commitment against water waste and for the preservation of ecosystems.
The trend scenario: moderate adaptation
This scenario would see a slight increase in withdrawals to meet growing demand from the energy industry, despite overall stagnation. Hydroelectric power plants in the region could moderately adjust their capacity in response to increasingly dry and hot summers.
Irrigation, already predominant, would increase further to support the cultivation of vines and olive trees, traditional in this southern region, in the face of more frequent periods of drought.
The “public policy” scenario: proactive intervention
In Brittany, implementation of large-scale rainwater harvesting systems in urban areas could reduce pressure on local aquatic resources, particularly during the summer months when demand is highest.
Strengthening infrastructure for the treatment and reuse of wastewater for agricultural irrigation would lead to a significant reduction in raw water withdrawals, while effectively preserving agricultural yields.
-The rupture scenario for radical change
In the Massif Central, the massive adoption of agroforestry techniques improves water retention in the soil, thus reducing irrigation needs and contributing to a 47% reduction in water withdrawals in this predominantly agricultural region.
In Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, this scenario foresees the establishment of state-of-the-art water management systems, including zero water waste policies in coastal tourist areas, where hotels and tourist services adopt gray water recycling technologies.
Seasonal variations
Increasing agricultural irrigation highlights a major challenge. In 2050, water demand during the summer months is expected to intensify pressure on available resources, these periods corresponding to the lowest water availability in natural environments.
The next publication from France Stratégie, planned to quantify the tensions between demand and availability of water, is crucial. It will make it possible to better prepare territories to manage potential shortages and to plan adaptive strategies to avoid conflicts of use exacerbated by the climate.
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