Ironically, Doug Ford, when he arrived at the head of Ontario in June 2018, was himself compared to the president-elect. The blonde mane, imposing build, direct tone and ease in making strong statements seemed to bring the Ontario conservative closer to Donald Trump. With his blue cap, a nod to that of his American counterpart and his MAGA slogan “Make America Great Again», Doug Ford reinforces this resemblance despite himself.
But in six and a half years at the head of the province, Doug Ford has proven that he is not Mr. Trump. During the COVID-19 crisis, the Conservative leader proved to be a responsible Prime Minister, immediately understanding the seriousness of the situation.
A willing populist during his first election, Mr. Ford, unlike Donald Trump, was able to adopt a more moderate tone when dealing with other levels of government and in critical situations.
This ease in times of crisis has been particularly illustrated in recent days after the announcement of the potential imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian products and Mr. Trump’s proposal to annex Canada, reinforcing economic pressure on the Confederation.
Filling a political void
Present in the American media, including the very conservative Fox News, threatening to cut Ontario’s energy exports to the United States (particularly affecting Michigan, New York and Wisconsin) or ironically suggesting to buy back the Alaska and Minnesota, Mr. Ford established himself as “Captain Canada” filling the political void left by the resignation of his federal counterpart, Justin Trudeau, on January 6.
Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford has established himself as “Captain Canada” filling the political void left by the resignation of his federal counterpart, Justin Trudeau, on January 6. (Patrick Woodbury/Archives Le Droit)
The Ontario Prime Minister knows that he is playing big with the return to power of Donald Trump, officially this Monday. Canada’s most populous province would be affected by protectionist measures, including tariffs on automobiles, agriculture and energy.
-Ontario’s economy remains particularly dependent on North American supply chains and diversified exports, unlike, for example, Alberta, which is able to specialize in oil, natural gas and petrochemicals.
Doug Ford is undoubtedly hoping to play on the patriotic fiber of Ontarians, probably a few weeks before the calling of early elections in the province. Aware that this first half of 2025 will be marked by an anti-liberal backlash coming from Ottawa and by a still mild economic situation, the Prime Minister will try to consolidate his majority. A success would allow him to keep his troops in power at least until 2029.
Economic tension
This will not be the first or last time the United States imposes tariffs on Canada. Uncle Sam has regularly established countervailing duties on Canadian lumber, considering Canadian forest policies as unfair subsidies. In 2018, the United States also imposed tariffs of 25% on Canadian steel and 10% on aluminum for “national security” reasons.
Until then, the impact had been relatively limited. But in a context of global inflation amplifying costs, it is not certain that Ontario businesses will hold up as well this time.
This moment of economic tension between the United States and Canada could transform Doug Ford into a national hero or reveal his limits in the face of adversity. Between patriotism and pragmatism, “Captain Canada” is navigating through troubled waters, and betting big with elections that are perhaps more unpredictable than expected.
Sébastien Pierroz is a journalist and producer for TFO’s ONFR news franchise.
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