Regime change: Quebec would soon go into storm mode

Deficit in Quebec

While northwestern Quebec received the anticipated amount of snow from December 1 to January 14, the other regions found themselves in deficit. The atmospheric context was less favorable for strong storms during the first six weeks of winter. Systems from Alberta, the famous clippers, were the majority. The trajectory of strong winds aloft further favored a circulation of more intense disturbances south of the border.

“It’s been a strange winter so far in terms of snow,” says Réjean Ouimet, meteorologist. Storms and other major broadsides have shown a discriminatory side until now. Some of these storms were even explosive but mainly developed away from most regions of Quebec.”

Back to normal

In terms of snow received, the entire province is in deficit for the first half of the winter. Meteorologists anticipate a snowier streak between now and March 1st. However, the quantities would not exceed normal for the period. Note that Quebec receives around fifteen broadsides during the last six weeks of the season, nearly thirty for the entire winter.

Favorable trajectory

For the second portion of winter, a change in diet is anticipated. The air masses should have a different configuration. With the arctic air positioned to the west of Quebec, the mildness has a greater chance of reaching our latitudes. This means a change in the trajectory of the jet stream which allows the circulation of large disturbances coming from the southern United States towards the Belle Province.

“The top two curves in the table represent these high or increasing possibilities for our regions to see storms more closely,” explains Réjean Ouimet. The interaction of cold to the west and milder air to the southeast provides a perfect combination for the genesis of storms. »

The intensity in question

Meteorologists estimate that the repositioning of air masses would provide a context richer in storms for Quebec during the coming weeks. However, one element remains unresolved: the intensity of the gentleness. The ridge located in the southeast of the United States allows the mild air to rise towards the Belle Province. When it manifests strongly, mercury can change the type of precipitation. The scenario of mixtures or rain is therefore not ruled out.