Lhe current agricultural season closely resembles those of recent years, marked by the irregularity of rainfall in space and time. It got off to a good start during the month of October, but since then there has been a lack of rain. The few precipitations recorded here and there had generated a very low water supply, unable to ensure a smooth running of the season.
In its latest Council, Bank Al-Maghrib put forward the hypothesis of a cereal harvest of 50 million quintals, a drop of 31% compared to the forecasts of the 2025 Finance Law. Generally, the Central Bank waits for the month of March to make a definitive projection. Currently, conditions are not favorable to ensure a good harvest. The lack of rain has dissuaded many farmers from starting work on the land, which amounts, for a normal year, to more than 5.3 million hectares.
“The rainy season has been postponed. This phenomenon is not isolated and does not only concern Morocco. It also affects other regions in the world, particularly in the Mediterranean area. Instead of beginning in mid-fall and extending into spring, it begins early in October and runs out between November and January, only to resume in February. It is only beneficial for spring crops and late sowing; even natural rangelands do not benefit enough to enrich pastures. Due to the dry spell in recent years, the soil in the burs areas is becoming hard, failing to retain moisture. Sowing operations become complicated and rainwater does not penetrate deep enough to encourage plant growth and touch the roots,” explains Abdelmoumen Guennouni, agronomist.
Even for irrigated areas, the situation does not look good. Dam reserves are at a worrying level and the water table is strongly impacted. “Generally, all crops are impacted by the lack of rain. But the sectors most affected are cereals, legumes, fodder crops and particularly livestock. The current national livestock census campaign will provide an idea of its evolution, the number of animals, existing breeds, age and sex… Which will allow the government to take the necessary measures. We must remember that Eid Al-Adha arrives in six months, and with the current restrictive environment in the sector, there is a big risk that supply will not cover demand. The sheep import operation has not resolved the problem and the red meat sector is posting record prices. It remains to be hoped that rain will be there for the current month and February in order to redress the situation somewhat. What is certain is that the 50 million quintals of harvests mentioned by BAM are not sustainable. Mamda, an agricultural insurance company, has not yet started subscriptions, although the operation normally closes on December 15 of the year. She is waiting to have more visibility and also the reassurance of an international organization,” says Guennouni.
Water reserves in dams are worrying
The filling rate of the dams does not exceed 24%. Some large dams are reaching a very critical point. This is the case of the Al Massira dam, the second largest in the country which supplies the Doukkala irrigated area, which has dried up. Bin El Ouidane, the third structure in the country, is less than 10%. Fortunately, certain hydraulic basins serving major agricultural regions have levels that are either stable or in excess compared to last year. Thus, as of January 3, 2025, the water reserves of the Souss-Massa basin show a rate of 47.35%, those of Loukkous 38.83% (668 million m3). As for Sebou, it has a reserve of more than 2 billion m3, or a rate of 36.37%.
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