EXCLUSIVE BAROMETER. Bayrou struggling, the Retailleau-Darmanin duo in good shape

Bad start. In public opinion, the appointment and the first steps of François Bayrou at Matignon are judged very harshly. The fourth Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term only receives 20% favorable judgments according to the Ipsos barometer – Cesi School of Engineering – La Tribune Sunday. This is 14 points less than Michel Barnier after his installation on rue de Varenne and 17 less than Gabriel Attal. The mayor of Pau is very far from being full of Renaissance-MoDem-Horizons supporters with 52% positive opinions. He only obtained 24% among LR-UDI supporters.

His level of unfavorable judgments (59%) is immediately very high when his predecessor had benefited from a more wait-and-see reception (he only totaled 33%). “ This means that the question of opinion will not be central for François Bayrouconcludes Brice Teinturier, Deputy Managing Director of Ipsos.She cannot be a point of support for him. He will have to look for his points of strength elsewhere. Everything will rest on his political ability, his ability to find compromises. »

The composition of his government, however, is judged differently. The creation of a duo of heavyweights to occupy the positions of Ministers of the Interior and Justice is having an effect on public opinion. For 35% of French people, Bruno Retailleau is the best minister in the Bayrou team. The tenant of Place Beauvau, who was the only notable figure in the Barnier government, did not suffer from the redistribution of the cards and the arrival of other personalities capable of competing politically and in the media with him. Now Keeper of the Seals, Gérald Darmanin is in second position behind him: 33% of respondents consider him the best. If the latter is in the lead among Renaissance-MoDem-Horizons supporters with 49%, he is closely followed by Bruno Retailleau with 45%.

Among LR-UDI supporters, however, it is the opposite: 62% in favor of the Minister of the Interior and 47% for Gérald Darmanin. In the ranking of the most popular members of the government, Rachida Dati and Manuel Valls, the new Minister of Overseas Territories, are in third position with 18%. Note: three holders of Place Beauvau therefore appear in the top three. As for Élisabeth Borne, everything remains to be proven for her. With 12%, the new Minister of Education is only in sixth position, behind Sébastien Lecornu, her colleague from the Armed Forces. “It’s no big surprise. Her popularity as Prime Minister had been low», recalls Brice Teinturier.

While political instability is unprecedented under the Fifth Republic, Emmanuel Macron is in no way seen as a recourse. With 21% favorable judgments, it fell by two points in one month. Its unpopularity is considerable among RN supporters (90%), which has become massive among those of LR (74%). In the barometer of her potential successors, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella are in the lead. Their censorship of the Barnier government had no negative impact on the RN duo. Among the figures on the left, it is now François Hollande who arrives first, ahead of Raphaël Glucksmann who has fallen by four points in one month.

* Compared to the October barometer. Ipsos-Cesi Engineering School survey for La Tribune Dimanche carried out on January 8 and 9, 2025 among a representative sample of the French population of 1,000 people aged 18 and over interviewed online using the quota method.