The day of the little spoons

The socialists’ announcement had been drowned in the usual flood of confused words that is the socialist way itself: it is said, but not really, and it can be understood differently, but it is said and we can to say that we said it but not like that. Said in a way that requires each journalist an hour or two of deciphering. But the next morning, the media had been put on alert and some did not let it pass.

The PS confessed in due form. But anyone who knows the political history of our country knows that social vocabulary is a perfectly marked minefield. Everything counts. Some say “social charges”, others “social contributions”; here “cost of labor”, there “price of labor; and so on. In the simple vocabulary of political and union activists, saying “move to another system” regarding pensions is the equivalent of a slap in the face.

• The expression has been “on the table” for thirty years! For thirty years she has meant the same thing: abandonment of pay-as-you-go retirement. Thirty years since retirement by points has been one of the Liberals’ key points. Thirty years since the dismemberment of the social insurance system organized by Social Security has been their central fight. Here the issue for liberals of all stripes is the prospect of seeing billions and billions of euros return to the financial market scene through pension funds. Thirty years that the political and union “left” has been fighting this idea with leaflets, demonstrations, meetings, parliamentary blockades, and so on. Everyone knows the list of arguments and can recite it one way or the other and from the middle to the end, or the other way around.
• The socialists’ method is shocking because they did not warn any of us of their turn on the wing on this subject, because they are creating confusion on a very sensitive subject even though they had signed clear texts with us on it. And so, they and we knew perfectly well what these commitments represented from an electoral point of view! Indeed, none of us rebellious people can vote to elect a left-wing deputy, who proposes to destroy the Social Security system. And immediately, the return of points retirement in the debate is a diversion when the question posed is that of the dismissal of the President of the Republic for having refused to recognize the result of the legislative elections. It opens an explosive division on a subject that had been settled and softened by serious and in-depth discussions lasting hours.
• To do it, Olivier Faure pulled out the old tricks with which the Macronists and their predecessors were already burdening us with each resumption of the points retirement project: the threat of the hole in Social Security and, at the choice, either bankruptcy or a reduction in pensions. Once again, he invoked the threat of a hole of 15 billion from next year. However, precisely, the Boundary reform for retirement at age 64 imposed by 49.3 was supposed to prevent this hole from forming. And if the Borne reform had any meaning in the eyes of the Macronists of the time, it was at least that. In this case, what happened? How did the hole come back? The Macronists will perhaps tell us. Or, they will admit to having also rigged these accounts to hide deficits like for the state budget.
• The return of the figure of 15 billion is all the more surprising since it was with its negation that Faure’s intervention from the Assembly podium in this debate began. To refresh the memory of Olivier Faure and allow people who read me to get a more precise idea of ​​the evolution of the PS on the subject, here is an extract from the official journal of the debates in the National Assembly when Olivier Faure spoke to the platform against the points pension proposed by Macron.

« Mr. President: The floor is given to Mr. Olivier Faure.

Olivier Faure: “Touching our pension system is not nothing. Forged in the heroic ordeal of the Resistance, created at the Liberation, it has proven itself: the number of poor retirees in France is twice as low as among our neighbors and salary inequalities are reduced at the time of retirement. . Also, it is also indisputable – the system can be improved. This is good: in 2024, the Government will have a historic opportunity! The famous “social security hole” will be filled and between 18 and 20 billion euros will then be available each year to finance pensions and dependency, and relieve the public hospital, all this without any additional compulsory deduction. This is an opportunity that no government before you has had. ».

So after having condemned the point-based retreat of Macron and Édouard Philippe two years ago, he is calling for it today. After asking for the repeal of the Borne reform, he asked for its suspension. And to put the subject back on the table after having denied the hole in Social Security two years ago, here Faure is taking up the argument again!

• I therefore take up the arguments of the rebels on the subject two years ago, since we have not changed it. The 15 billion argument is bogus and the PS at the time contested it like us. In 2020, it was already a gross manipulation of figures to impose a useless reform. First of all, where does this figure of 15 billion holes per year come from? This is Édouard Philippe’s assessment. This was his refrain at the time to justify the reform. According to him, in the absence of reform, there would be 180 billion in additional debt by 2035. And that therefore amounts to around 15 billion per year. This is the new benchmark for PS! Édouard Philippe found this figure by combining the deficit forecasts of the COR (retirement guidance council). But he had chosen to combine the least favorable scenarios compared to the others in the same COR! Because the COR, on the other hand, demonstrated that 7.5 billion euros of deficit per year could be explained by austerity measures towards civil servants which strain the system’s resources! Renouncing this policy of freezing salaries in the public sector would therefore cut the social security bill by half. In any case, the Reserve Fund for Pensions (created by the Jospin government) then already had 26 billion euros intended to fill “the cyclical deficits” of the system. And moreover the reserves of this system were already increasing to 26.4 billion euros in 2021. Finally, in this rigged accounting, Édouard Philippe did not quantify what the cost of raising the starting age. This involves 4 to 5 billion euros for unemployment funds (seniors are less easily hired and more commonly fired) and for the state budget. And that’s without counting health care, because aging at work does not improve the health of workers.
• Either way, the system is not bankrupt! Taking the least favorable figures, in the next 25 years, the pension system deficit would be around 0.4% of GDP (9 billion euros). Provided of course that the State maintains its current contribution to reimburse the gifts made to companies today in terms of social security contributions. And finally, if we make an overall account between the branches of Social Security, as was the case when it was founded, forecasts show that Social Security, all branches combined, will be in surplus in 2030, even with a deficit. retirements! Let’s end with the fable of the Social Security hole by recalling that the COR, from which Edouard Philippe took the figures that suited him best, is often wrong: for example, for the year 2022, he had forecast a deficit of 10 billion euros when in reality there was a surplus of 3 billion.
• Let’s say how the rebel program finances the reforms proposed by the “The Future in Common” program to improve the situation of retirees while refusing to constantly postpone the retirement age! Here is the list of financing provided by our retirement action plan: it generates 25 billion in revenue!
  • Return to exemptions from uncompensated contributions (on overtime for example). Two billion per year could thus be recovered
  • Submit to contribution the sums dedicated to capitalization retirement. This represents three billion per year.
  • Submit an additional contribution on salaries of more than 3,500 euros. This gives four billion euros.
  • Equal pay for women and men in equal positions and equal working hours: would bring in 5 billion euros.
  • Increase of 0.25 points in social security contributions each year for 5 years = 16 billion.
• We noted with satisfaction the reactions of the PCF and EELV to the PS’s reversal on pensions. They remain faithful to the program that we signed together and on which all our deputies were elected. The PS is isolated. He is therefore the only one who wants to “put retirement with points on the table” as a PS leader clearly said at Sud Radio and as another like Patrick Kanner confirmed by returning to the deficit of 15 billion by taking the pose of the self-proclaimed “government party”. We can imagine that there are still elected officials and PS members who refuse such a denial of the historic position of the “labor movement”. We’ll know soon. In fact, it has never been discussed at the PS.

  Let no one count on the rebels to give in however little on the subject. Everyone can be reassured, there will remain at least one ballot to demand withdrawal of retirement at 64 and even to return to 60. And there will be, on the other side, all the others, competing with each other on the same subject. Municipal candidates will not be able to escape the subject since the retirement of their own municipal employees depends on it. Of course, the silence of the union confederations on the subject must have meaning. But does this constitute approval? It’s not safe at all, outside of the CFDT if I understand correctly. But would she choose to enter into such a debate at this time to help the macronie survive, while it is blocking all other negotiations? Nothing is less certain!

  In total, this is already enough damage done and confusion spread by the PS for a poor political maneuver. It is time to stop this belly dance in front of Bayrou where, day by day, the PS is lowering the level of its demands.

  Socialists: go govern with Bayrou or take on the opposition! None of your voters gave you the role of replacing the unions to negotiate the existence of Social Security! Your voters have given you a clear mandate to defend it. And stop wanting to drag the entire political and union left into the confusion and divisions you are creating. And when you eat at Matignon or Bercy, remember the advice: “Whatever the spoon, the soup that is too salty will not change.” And as we know, you don’t even eat dinner with a long spoon.