A few weeks ago, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) revealed the main results of the general population and housing census (RGPH). Far from going unnoticed, these results, usually perceived as boring or uninteresting by non-specialized citizens, have this time hit the headlines. Certainly a little less than the Moudawana, but we were still treated to an anthology of articles with catchy titles on the subject. From alarmist articles, for whom Morocco is aging with a demographic decline, to those for whom everything is fine madame la marquisethe truth lies, as is often the case, between the two.
Let’s start with the aging of our population. Although timid for the moment, this phenomenon has indeed been started by Morocco for several years. Since on the one hand, life expectancy has continued to increase since independence, and is now around 77 years, compared to 68 years in 2004, and on the other, fertility is decreasing to reach today Today an average of 1.97 children per woman, compared to 2.6 in 2004.
These two opposing dynamics trigger a movement of inversion of the age pyramid, where we find ourselves with more and more older people and fewer and fewer young people. This risks ultimately endangering our pension funds and our insurance companies, already weakened by decades of mismanagement, according to the scandals which regularly dot the news. We will return to this very sensitive point a little later.
The real problem does not lie in the aging of our population, but in the fact that in Morocco, we age poorly. Indeed, from the start of their sixties, or even their fifties, millions of Moroccans already tick all the boxes of the usual chronic pathologies, ranging from diabetes to hypertension, including osteoarthritis and heart disease. .
This is due to a plurality of factors, such as the structural failure of our public health system, poverty, poor lifestyle and eating habits, sedentary lifestyle, lack of sporting activities, etc.
The other problem is that our young people, who are supposed to work and contribute to finance pensions and the care of our elders, will be fewer and fewer in number, and several million of them do not work, as recent figures show. unemployment, or work in the informal sector, which amounts to the same thing, since they do not contribute. And when I talk about the informal, it is far from being anecdotal. This sector represents the equivalent of a third of the national GDP and 77% of employment.
Launched by the King in 2021, the generalization of social protection should ultimately partially resolve this problem. But the latter will in no way be able to resolve or obscure other issues, such as the low level of labor productivity in Morocco, or the existence of an informal sector which devours our development potential from within, while clumsily allowing to buy social peace.
“Already our economic growth depends heavily on rainfall, it would no longer be necessary for our development to depend in turn on demography.”
Finally, the decline in fertility in Morocco. Indeed, the total fertility index today stands at 1.97 children per woman, lower than the replacement rate which is 2.1, and which allows the size of the population to remain stable, without decline. nor population growth.
In itself, this rate is not yet particularly alarming. This is the dynamic, since most of the countries that have crossed this demographic Rubicon did so at the peak of their demographic development. Which is far from being the case for us. We have, so to speak, an increasingly “Western” demography, but with an economy far from being at the level required to contribute to the prosperity and sustainability of all. Especially since the regions where fertility is the lowest are not necessarily the most developed, such as the Oriental (1.73) or Béni Mellal-Khénifra (1.95).
Because the real causes of this decline are not a sudden rise in individualism or a modernization of minds, but simply the high cost of living, poverty, the delay in the average age of marriage and privatization at all costs. vital sectors for future parents, such as education or health.
-Now, let’s recap.
– We have a population that is living longer and longer, but in less and less good health. From this point of view, it would be interesting to have data on healthy life expectancy to be able to assess the extent of the phenomenon.
– We are having fewer and fewer children, with fairly significant regional disparities, which is mainly due to the high cost of living, the delay in the age of marriage and the rampant privatization of strategic sectors (education, health…).
– The employed active population, which is supposed to finance the social model, has a very low level of labor productivity compared to what Morocco needs, and the informal sector represents 78% of employment. As for the unemployment rate, according to the HCP it is around 21% in 2024.
– As for social coverage, the gap between the level of employee contributions and the CNSS reimbursement rate for the private sector is simply colossal. Every time you get reimbursed for a medical service, know that you are taking a trip back in time without knowing it. Since you contribute at full price in 2025, but to get reimbursed, you take a leap in the past to 2006, because the TNR (National Reference Tariff) has not been updated since. This is likely to lead people to perceive the CNSS contribution as an incurred cost, rather than as a protective benefit.
What to do then?
First, try to resolve problems upstream, instead of perpetually trying to fill in the gaps with tinkering and last-minute reconfigurations. This requires a real educational revolution, by definitively eliminating illiteracy and by investing massively, and above all intelligently, in education, from nursery school to higher education. In other words, invest in people, and not just in stone and infrastructure. It is the human factor that has made and still makes the strength of Asian dragons and tigers, and not natural resources.
Secondly, forge a real vision and a real model of economic development which is not dependent on the vagaries and electoral cyclicalities and which, above all, does not water down reality. A true development model is not a set of wishful thinking, but a complex and long-term strategic vision, over 30 or 40 years, and not over the duration of a mandate.
Already our economic growth depends heavily on rainfall, it would no longer be necessary for our development to depend in turn on demography. Therefore, it is time for us to recognize the need to invest in people, knowledge and understanding, also understanding that this is the condition sine qua non of any development dynamic. And in this area, no shortcuts are possible. Quality instead of quantity should be the keystone of our ambitions for the future.
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