Here is everything that the political year 2025 has in store for us in Switzerland

After a turbulent year in 2024, Swiss politics should experience calmer times. But the debates on burning issues will continue, whether it is the European question, the financing of the 13th AVS pension, the army budget or possible resignations within the Federal Council.

With its four busy voting Sundays with unexpected results, the 2024 political year has been eventful in Switzerland. The finances of the Confederation and its additional spending on the AVS and the army kept Parliament in suspense. The conference on Ukraine at Bürgenstock brought together a record number of international political figures in our little Switzerland.

Finally, as a final bouquet, the report of the parliamentary commission of inquiry (CEP) on the sinking of Credit Suisse (CS) and the result of the negotiations on a package of agreements with the EU were published… the same day. To complete it all, all that was missing was a resignation from the Federal Council.

Such an accumulation of headline-grabbing events is unusual for our country, known for its monotony. The year 2025 looks set to be rather calm. But perhaps this is the calm before the storm.

Voting

2024 was a memorable year in terms of votes: twelve projects were put to the vote. This is due to a “catch-up effect”: no substantive vote took place during the second half of 2023. In the end, the Federal Council had to count the high number of five defeats, while the left was on the winning side for nine of the twelve projects.

The PS and the Greens won five times against the UDC, the PLR ​​and the Center, a unique record. But from the first deadline of 2025, February 9, we should expect a return to “normality”. According to the first surveys by the SSR and Tamedia, the initiative for environmental responsibility of the Young Greens is set to fail.

In addition, only one project is currently ready to be put to a vote: the tax on second homes, approved in December, which aims to compensate mountain regions for losses suffered following the abolition of rental value. This measure is subject to compulsory referendum and therefore requires the majority of the people and the cantons. The vote should take place in May or September. If not, the repeal of the rental value should also be reviewed.

Otherwise, no initiative or referendum is ready to be launched. When it comes to E-ID, Parliament appears to have reached a compromise on the second try.

If this voting year promises to be calm, this will not be the case in 2026, since three objects linked to the SVP could be submitted to the people: the initiative for neutrality, that for the reduction of the SSR fee “200 francs is enough!” and the popular initiative against Switzerland with 10 million inhabitants. Lifting the ban on building nuclear power plants could also be put to a vote by early 2027.

Europe

The conclusion of negotiations with the EU, announced just before Christmas, sparked strong reactions. The text of the agreement, which currently only exists in English, will be translated into the three official languages. The final version must then be approved by the chief negotiators.

Before the summer break, the Federal Council could put the treaty package up for consultation and submit it to Parliament at the beginning of 2026. According to the current planning sets, a popular vote will not take place until 2028, i.e. after the next elections. The social partners’ discussions on wage protection will play an important role at this time.

The representatives of the Trade Union are protesting. At the end of January, an assembly of delegates should decide on concrete demands. And according to its president Thierry Burkart, the PLR ​​wants to consult its base on the package of agreements from June.

Foreign policy

With the conclusion of negotiations with the EU, foreign policy should be calmer, especially as Switzerland’s two-year term on the UN Security Council comes to an end. We do not know what will happen to the Ukraine question after the Bürgenstock conference, which was certainly successful organizationally, but rather weak in content.

The recurring theme of asylum is also linked to foreign policy. The number of asylum requests is falling. In November 2024, it was 26% lower than the previous year. It would be a welcome respite for Asylum Minister Beat Jans, whose record is considered mixed so far.

Federal Council

As President of the Confederation in 2025, Karin Keller-Sutter (PLR) is taking matters into her own hands. It is believed capable of consolidating the supreme executive, shaken in 2024 by the sudden death of vice-chancellor and spokesperson for the Federal Council André Simonazzi.

On the other hand, there could be resignations. Guy Parmelin (UDC), now the federal councilor in office for the longest number of years — ten years — should serve his second year as president in 2026, if his health allows it. There is therefore little chance that he will want to resign this year.

After Parmelin, the “oldest” federal councilor is Ignazio Cassis (PLR), elected in 2017. At 63, he would be tempted to pass on the hot potato of the European file to a successor. But the fact that Switzerland will assume the presidency of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2026 argues against this scenario.

In Bern, speculation is also rife about the departure of Viola Amherd (Center). In this context, the battle for a second centrist seat taken from the PLR ​​could also shake up Swiss politics in the coming years. As a reminder, if the two parties were neck and neck in voting percentages in the 2023 federal elections, the Center has more seats in Parliament.

AVS and LPP

Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (PS) has got off to a good start at the Federal Department of the Interior, not least because of a very demanding year of voting for her. But now is the time to prove herself. The Federal Council wants to finance the 13^e AVS pension by an increase in VAT, but the right wants to resolve this issue in the next AVS reform.

Parliament “ordered” it for 2026. Baume-Schneider announced on the SRF that it would present the reference values ​​to the Federal Council during the first half of 2025. On the other hand, with regard to occupational pension provision (LPP) , nothing will happen in the near future, after the failure of the reform project in September. Pension fund pensions are therefore expected to continue to fall.

Budget

Contrary to some fears, the year 2025 does not begin with an “emergency budget”. The right-wing majority in Parliament was able to adopt a budget in line with the debt brake in December. Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter will soon present a budget relief package, based on the proposals of the Gaillard expert group.

Its chances of success are in doubt. Struggles over distribution are expected to intensify. The army, already a winner from the budget, should receive even more money, believes the right. The Confederation’s share in the AVS will also increase, and not only because of the 13^e annuity. Cuts in development aid are planned, but they are unlikely to be enough to compensate for all this. PLR State Councilor Josef Dittli made clear remarks at the end of the winter session:

Additional revenue therefore no longer seems to be a taboo subject, even for part of the right.

The money controversy has marked 2024 and will continue into the 2025 political year. Behind the scenes, even military supporters are angered by the failure of Viola Amherd’s Defense Department to present a clear concept for the rearmament of the army. They even agree with the PS on this point.

But also

Albert Rösti’s Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) also harbors potential for conflict over the implementation of the Electricity Act adopted in June 2024. to the extension of the road and rail networks, including wolf shooting. In the case of road and rail development, significant additional costs have recently emerged.

The CEP report on the bankruptcy of the CS will also continue to occupy the political world. It should be dealt with by Parliament during the spring 2025 session. In a first position after its publication, the Federal Council gave it a rather unfavorable reception.

Translated from German by Anne Castella