France will raise 300 billion euros in 2025, a record

France is excessively indebted, at 112.8% of GDP, and ends the year in a thick budgetary fog. However, it must continue to borrow to ensure state financing. Impervious to political instability, Agence France Trésor (AFT) has just announced this Thursday that it would raise 300 billion euros of debt on the financial markets throughout 2025. Never seen before. In 2024 it had raised the already unprecedented amount of 285 billion, which followed the previous record of 270 billion in 2023.

The 300 billion euros of borrowing announced for 2025 correspond precisely to the amount indicated in the finance bill (PLF) presented last October by the Barnier government, which was nevertheless censored at the beginning of December. “From the first Monday of the year 2025, we will issue under the offices of the special law which guarantees the financial continuity of the State . This law authorizes us to continue to carry out all treasury and debt operations, until the entry into force of the finance law for 2025”details Antoine Deruennes, general director of the AFT.

Down or up

As a reminder, the special law was adopted urgently by Parliament with a view to guaranteeing the continuity of the State, by making it possible to raise taxes, spend credits on the basis of the 2024 budget, and authorize the State and Social security to borrow. As this is not a PLF strictly speaking, the AFT is not required to carry out a transfer of the debt lifting planned for the 2024 budget, of 285 billion euros.

Not knowing what the precise financing needs will be for the coming year, the Agency considered it more pragmatic to stick to the borrowing amount agreed in October. Indeed, more debt will mature in 2025 compared to 2024. The German equivalent of Agence France Trésor, faced with a similar political situation, has also made the same choice.

But what will happen if the upcoming PLF, which should be adopted at the start of the year, were to correct France’s borrowing downwards or upwards? “At this stage we are working on the basis of 300 billion euros. If this amount needs to be changed, we will communicate it to investors”would like to reassure Antoine Deruennes, citing the three pillars of his service in support: “regularity, predictability, flexibility”.