Here’s everything you need to know about the upcoming elections.
As provided for in Canadian electoral law, the federal election must take place on October 20, 2025.
However, Justin Trudeau’s minority government could encounter confidence votes in the House of Commons and trigger one sooner. These votes take place on spending issues, like the budget and the fall economic statement, and the government has a lot of control over when these votes take place.
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But the opposition can offer its own votes of confidence on special days called opposition days — where the government has some flexibility in scheduling. Up to seven such days must take place between now and the end of March, according to House of Commons rules. These do not have to be motions of confidence.
An election could be held in winter, spring or summer if the Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois (BQ) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) reject the government on any of these votes — but they must all come together at the same time time to do it. Once that happens, the campaign period must be at least 37 days, but no longer than 51 days, according to an Elections Canada backgrounder. Election day must always fall on a Monday.
Pressure from oppositions
In the wake of Chrystia Freeland’s departure as finance minister, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh demanded this week that Mr. Trudeau resign, and his parliamentary leader, Peter Julian, threatened in an interview on the television show Power and Politics to oust the government in a vote of confidence in February or March if Justin Trudeau remains at the helm. If the party follows through, it could lead to elections in March.
On the Conservative side, their leader Pierre Poilievre revived his calls for an early election and sent a message to Jagmeet Singh, inviting him to put “Canada first” and bring down the Trudeau government. “[Lundi]we were reminded that if you hire clowns, you get a circus,” he told the media. “But no one should laugh, because yesterday’s chaotic liberal clown show has real consequences.”
“Mr. Trudeau’s government is over. He must recognize this and act accordingly,” declared Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the Bloc Québécois. According to him, an election must take place at the beginning of 2025.
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Recall that the House of Commons was paralyzed for most of the fall parliamentary session, unable to pass most of the government’s bills due to a debate on privileges and parliamentary obstruction regarding the publication of documents in an ethics and expenses scandal.
Resignation?
The House of Commons adjourned its proceedings on December 17, 2024 and the return is not expected before January 27, 2025.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trudeau said he would begin a reflection after the latest developments in Ottawa. He also told loyal donors to the Liberal Party of Canada that “it is the absolute privilege” of his life to be prime minister. According to sources who spoke to CTV News, the Prime Minister intends to hold on until the end of the vacation.
However, with the possibility of an extension and the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump scheduled for January 20, there is a lot of uncertainty about how the next six weeks will unfold.
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If Justin Trudeau resigns, that gives him until mid-to-late January to take his famous “walk in the snow,” as his father did, and think about passing on the reins of Liberal leadership. The party’s national board would appoint an interim leader until the party’s base elects a new one and sets a date for the race. Note that the PLC has not adopted an official mechanism to oust its leader, as the Conservative Party did.
Otherwise, his party will have to do everything possible to stay in power as long as possible and maintain the support of the NDP in the event of votes of confidence. Last September, the NDP ended the agreement in principle with the Liberals.
Towards an extension?
In any of the scenarios Mr. Trudeau faces, he could choose to hit the pause button on Parliament by proroguing. He could make a request to the Governor General while the House is in session, or when it is adjourned for vacation.
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An extension would allow the government to avoid confidence votes that could topple the government and trigger early elections. And it would buy enough time for a leadership contest if Mr. Trudeau resigns, but it would have to be short.
Thomas Hall, a former procedural clerk of the House of Commons, told The Canadian Press there is a time limit that accompanies this measure. Parliament should resume its work a few months later to continue providing the government with the funds necessary for its functioning.
That’s because once in the past, former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney had prorogued Parliament before its scheduled reopening in February 1989, leaving it closed from December to April and leaving it to the Governor General to approve spending current through special mandates.
Former Liberal MP Peter Milliken decided this created a political accountability problem, so he championed a private member’s bill that requires Parliament to return to vote on providing funds to the government. Mr. Milliken’s successful strategy for changing the rules in 1996 means that Mr. Trudeau cannot prorogue Parliament to avoid an election during the entire spring session.
It will therefore be necessary to closely monitor developments over the coming weeks….
With information from The Canadian Press and CTV News
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