France at +4° in 2100. And Nord-Pas-de-Calais?

The bonus info takes the temperature of the future this morning.
What will the climate look like in our region in 2100?
Météo France yesterday published a new report on the evolution of the climate with global warming. These are forecasts which anticipate an average increase in temperatures of 4° in France at the end of the century compared to the pre-industrial period, that is to say the end of the 19th century (1850-1900).

We see that Europe and therefore France are warming faster than the entire planet. If the average temperature of the planet increases by 3° in 2100, it will be + 4° in France! Météo France illustrates this by saying that roughly in the summer, Parisians will experience the climate that the inhabitants of Montpellier are currently experiencing. It is especially in summer that the temperature will increase the most in the Nord and Pas-de-Calais. The median scenario suggests around 3° more than the temperatures of the 1976-2000 period.

Overall, over the year as a whole, there could be more rain, around +5 to +15% precipitation but less in the summer, which means, a priori, more drought.
On the other hand, in winter the rains will be more substantial. The median scenario gives +15 to +25% rain in 2100, particularly in the Valenciennois and Avesnois sectors in the North and in Arrageois, Ternois for Pas de Calais.

Météo France offers on its site internet simulations applied to your municipality.
Example in Lille, the average number of days of frost in the 80s/90s was 36 days per year. In 2100, in a +4° scenario in France, there would only be 13 left.
In Boulogne-sur-Mer, we would go from 29 days of frost per year on average 30 years ago to 9 or even 6 in the event of maximum warming.

If we look at heat waves, with a temperature at night above 20°: there were 2 on average at the end of the 20th century, we would increase to around 15 days per year in 2100.

In Lens, the number of days with dry soil (soil humidity index) could go from 98 per year on average at the end of the last century to 124 or even, in the worst scenario, to 171 days! You should know that this indicator aggravates the phenomenon of shrinkage-swelling of clays and therefore damage to buildings.

SOURCES : Météo France report on the climate in 2100 Météo France tool to know the evolution of the climate in your municipality according to the scenarios and the date (+ 2° in 2030, +2.7° in 2050, + 4° in 2100)