Losing influence in Africa, France is deploying a new strategy on the continent. This turnaround places emphasis on establishing economic partnerships, particularly with English-speaking countries like Nigeria.
On November 28 and 29, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu was received on state visit to Parisa first in 24 years. The main objective of the visit of the African head of state is to strengthen economic relations between the two countries. This approach is part of France's desire to expand its economic partnerships in English-speaking Africa. Weakened in French-speaking African countries, this visit illustrates a pivot in French strategy on the continent.
A multitude of economic setbacks
France has suffered major economic losses in Africa over the past twenty years, reducing its market share by almost half. A report published in 2019 by former minister Hervé Gaymard shows that, although French exports have doubled, their share has fallen from 12% to 7% on a market which has quadrupled. This loss of competitiveness is part of a tense geopolitical context, illustrated in particular by the situation ofOran in Niger.
Faced with growing economic and political instability, Orana French company specializing in uranium, has suspended its activities from October 31, 2024. This decision comes in a climate marked by the desire of the Nigerien military regime, resulting from the coup d'état of July 2023, to review the exploitation of its natural resources to strengthen its sovereignty. LikeOranseveral French companies have reduced their activities on the continent, such as the major French banks (Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, BNP Paribas), whileothers are still under increasing pressure.
An unprecedented loss of influence
This loss of economic competitiveness reflects a wider decline of French influence on the African continentparticularly in West Africa, long considered its “private area”. This decline is particularly visible in the Sahel, where a series of coups led to the ousting of France from strategic territories.
Recently, several events have confirmed this loss of influence. The Chadian government thus announced the end of agreement of defense cooperation with France on November 28. The same day, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Senegalese president, declared that the sovereignty of his country « does not accommodate the presence of foreign military bases » by targeting the French military presence.
At the same time, competition from powers like the Chinethe Russia and the Türkiye intensifies, while hostile information campaigns fuel the anti-French narrative. These competitive countries are continuing their strategy of expansion in the former French “pre-square”. This is evidenced by the deployment of 200 Russian instructors in Equatorial Guinea last August or the reaffirmation of Turkish ambition on the continent on the occasion of the Türkiye-Africa summit in Djibouti at the beginning of November.
A strategic repositioning
President Emmanuel Macron announced in February 2023 a « diminution visible » of French military personnel in Africa, aiming to establish a « new partnership model » based on an increase in African capabilities. A year later, Jean-Marie Bockel was tasked with developing a strategy for reconfiguring the French military system in Africa. After several months of work, its report was submitted to the French president in July 2024.
The report proposes an ambitious reconfiguration, providing for a reduction of French military personnel from 2,300 to 600. This resizing is accompanied by a partnership “ renewed », focusing on increased cooperation with the local armed forces. The stated objective is to promote the autonomy of African countries in the management of their security, while preserving strategic links with France.
This overhaul is part of a broader logic of reorientation of French influence in Africa, now favoring partnerships focused on economic development and the sovereignty of African countries. This development also marks a desire to respond to local expectations and to redefine Franco-African relations on a more balanced mode of collaboration.
Several “pivots”
Since his first mandate, Emmanuel Macron has increased his travels to non-French-speaking countries, particularly to Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa. This pivot towards the economies of English-speaking countries reflects a consideration of new economic potential in Africa. Indeed, France's main trading partners on the continent, Nigeria and South Africa, are not French-speaking.
The example of Nigeria is particularly striking. France's first African trading partner in 2023Nigeria has been the subject of particular attention from Paris since 2017. The creation in 2018 of the Franco-Nigerian business council confirmed this trend. This forum, bringing together business leaders from the two nations, aims to strengthen economic ties. In addition to the economy, this collaboration places emphasis on youth and cultural exchanges, responding to the issues of a country where the median age is 18 years old.
France has also reviewed its priorities in the Maghreb. After years of tense relations with Algeria, Paris has initiated a strategic rapprochement with Morocco. This shift was illustrated by the recognition by France of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Saharaa major point of tension in the region. This rapprochement materialized during Emmanuel Macron's state visit to Rabat in October 2024. On this occasion, France and Morocco signed contracts and investment agreements with a total value estimated at 10 billion euros.
Louis Quinet
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