C’is one of the most scrutinized markers of influence in Brussels: the composition of the cabinets of European commissioners has just been revealed. The result of intense lobbying by Member States since the summer, this diplomatic exercise says a lot about the balance of power within the European executive. And, for France, the results are far from negligible despite a national political situation which attracts severe and worried judgments.
With eight strategic positions, including a chief of staff – Bertrand L'Huillier to Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné – France remains, with Germany, at the top of the ranking of the most represented nationalities. A performance which confirms the French capacity to place its senior civil servants in key positions, even if Germany has replaced four chiefs of staff but fewer deputies.
France and Germany maintain their position
“In fact, it’s the same low water as before. With all the same a French reinforcement in the cabinet of Ursula von der Leyen herself,” underlines the French camp. Indeed, in September, the President of the Commission integrated Alexandre Adam, Emmanuel Macron's former Europe Sherpa, as deputy head of the cabinet led by the German Björn Seibert. A way of balancing the Germanic tandem which heads the Commission.
With seven deputy chief of staff positions compared to a single chief of staff, France is banking on less exposed but equally strategic positions in the Brussels machinery. Estelle Göger finds herself alongside Stéphane Séjourné. As a Franco-German, we can therefore attribute it to Paris and Berlin without angering anyone “even if it is a little more French”, we confide in the corridors of the Commission.
We also find Laure Chapuis-Kombos with High Representative Kaja Kallas, Anne Fort with Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, Roland Sourd in the office of Commissioner Jozef Sikela (International Partnerships), Florentine Hopmeier with Commissioner Piotr Serafin (Budget) and Sophie Alexandrova in the office of Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharieva (Innovation and Youth). Portfolios that cover France's interests abroad…
Even more revealing is the profile of the French nominees. All are recognized experts in the European machine, experienced in the subtleties of Brussels. A generation of senior civil servants who have learned their skills in institutions and have a perfect mastery of the codes of community power.
Berlin dominates cabinet chiefs
Faced with this French presence, Germany displays strong positions with four chiefs of staff. It's not just a numerical question. This also reveals a finely crafted influence strategy by Berlin, which has placed its senior officials in key positions on the European economic agenda: Bernd Biervert, who will lead Maros Sefcovic's team for Trade (we think of Mercosur) and Economic Security, Michael Hager alongside Valdis Dombrovskis for Economy (hello French deficits!), and Andreas Schwarz alongside Ekaterina Zaharieva for Start-ups, Research and Innovation.ALSO READ What the painful agreement reached on the von der Leyen II commission revealsThis presence is reinforced by a network of strategically positioned deputies. Let's make a separate case of Estelle Göger in Stéphane Séjourné's office, we find Astrid Dentler with Wopke Hoekstra on Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, Max Uebe alongside Roxana Mînzatu for People and Skills, Joachim Herrmann in Michael McGrath's team at Democracy, Justice and the Rule of Law. A network which thus covers German priorities: economic competitiveness, green transition and technological innovation. The Biervert-Hager-Schwarz trio, in particular, forms a significant axis of power on economic and industrial issues, confirming the preponderant influence of Berlin in the new architecture of the European Commission.
The subtle balances of Brussels
If the Franco-German duo continues to leave its mark on the Brussels administration, Belgium is taking advantage of its position as host country to place four of its nationals in key positions. This mapping of influences also reveals some surprises. Italy maintains an honorable presence with three positions, while the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are gaining visibility, even if their representation remains modest. A geographical rebalancing which does not fundamentally call into question the predominance of the Paris-Berlin-Brussels triangle.
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The Netherlands maintains a more modest but targeted influence, with notably Esther de Lange, former MEP, as Christophe Hansen's chief of staff (Agriculture and Food), and Jan Van den Bossche as his deputy, as well as Johannes ten Broeke at the head of the cabinet of their national commissioner Wopke Hoekstra (Climate and Clean Growth).
France, which has made “European sovereignty” its battle horse, thus has valuable relays to carry its vision. It remains to be seen how this theoretical influence will be translated into action, while Germany has a certain numerical advantage in the positions of chief of staff. In fact, it’s not all a question of “nationalities”. There are Germans who do not particularly help Berlin and, conversely, French people who do not listen to Paris. We will therefore have to see in practice what real leverage this placement game allows.
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