SOn the African continent, France is definitely experiencing a series of disillusionments. In less than 24 hours, two security partners previously favored by Paris have decided to end their strategic partnership: in the future, no increased military presence in Chad and Senegal. By almost jointly unveiling their new positioning, these countries are part of a global dynamic of calling into question French influence in Africa.
The news is all the more sour as it falls within a delicate time frame for the French executive. Currently on the continent for his first African tour, Jean-Noël Barrot, Minister of Foreign Affairs, was still in N'Djamena a few hours before the press release from his Chadian counterpart. More broadly, these hard blows come four days after the presentation of the highly anticipated report by Jean-Marie Bockel on the subject of the remodeling of French forces to Emmanuel Macron, who commissioned it last February.
In Chad, assert “full and complete sovereignty”
It was on the evening of Thursday, November 28, 2024 that the authorities of Chad finally lifted the veil on what they describe as a “historic turning point” as part of the affirmation of “full and complete sovereignty”. It must be admitted that France has always benefited from a comfortable military presence in this barracks country with several bases and a thousand men, well before independence proclaimed in 1960. The air base 172 Fort-Lamy, which will have known all generations of fighter planes of the French army, was, for example, operational from 1939.
“This is a small earthquake for the French position,” comments Eddie Guipié – teacher-researcher, specialist in defense and international security issues at the University of Korhogo. If the researcher initially doubted the authenticity of the Chadian press release, it is because Jean-Marie Bockel's recommendations very recently called for maintaining a military presence of around 300 elements in Chad. That is more than in other states such as Gabon and Ivory Coast, where around a hundred soldiers should remain according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).
The legitimization of the authority of Mahamat Idriss Déby – his father's successor at the end of a contested transition – by Paris will therefore not have been enough to keep this country strategically located in the French fold. “Chad is committed to diversifying its security partners,” continues the specialist, referring to the troubling rapprochement made a few months ago by Hungary. In September, Budapest signed two defense agreements as part of the fight against immigration and terrorism, providing for the deployment of some 200 soldiers even though the country is not traditionally inclined towards distant military projections, and that it has neither nuclear capability nor a special position with the United Nations. His Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, on the other hand, demonstrates an ambiguous relationship with Vladimir Putin, whose country is also eyeing Chad. This is evidenced by the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last June with the aim of “strengthening military cooperation”.
Senegal follows suit
In Senegal, the ax fell through the voice of Bassirou Diomaye Faye himself, during an interview with AFP. The President of the Republic elected in March ruled in a crystal clear manner on the French case: “Sovereignty cannot accommodate the presence of military bases. » A new security cooperation doctrine which should soon be updated and which de facto excludes any foreign base: French or not. This change comes just a few days before the arrival of Jean-Noël Barrot, who should end his tour with a visit to the country of Teranga. As it stands, the discussions promise to be frank.
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Here again, “France's attempt to open up with the recognition of the massacre of the Senegalese riflemen of Thiaroye was not sufficient”, notes Eddie Guipié realistically. The issue was above all political for Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko who had been placed at the head of the nation on the basis of a strong criticism of foreign interference, at the forefront of which was France. After their victory, “the authorities did not really mention the French bases, to the great dismay of their voters,” recalls the expert. This strong position in terms of sovereignty today reassures an electoral base which has just reiterated its support for the authorities by giving them an absolute majority in Parliament.
“Military presence or military absence should not be equal to rupture”, however specified the Senegalese president. Same story on the Chadian side, whose press release politely concludes that the country remains “open to constructive dialogue to explore new forms of partnership”. France, which wanted to keep control of the directions relating to its remodeling, will have to be content with doors left ajar by partners who have become critical. Because to rethink its relationship with France, Africa did not wait for news from Paris.
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