This Friday, November 29, 2024, Météo France detailed the trends for the month of December in Reunion. Suffice to say that the island will not be spared. According to forecasts, in terms of cyclonic activity, after a short break next week, one or more cyclonic phenomena could form in the basin, particularly in mid-December. In Reunion, temperatures will remain warmer than normal on average (Photo: www.imazpress.com)
The objective of this trend is to provide information over the next four weeks on the cyclonic activity of the basin as well as the dominant weather patterns for Reunion Island.
– Cyclonic activity with new systems close to inhabited lands –
The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will become more favorable again around December 8, 2024 and from December 9 to 15, “with a convergence of winds (meeting of the trade wind and the monsoon flow) and rain-storm activity becoming potentially sufficient to generate new tropical low pressure systems”, indicates Météo France.
“These would first form over a large eastern half of the basin then gain more towards the center and west in the second half of December,” add the forecasters.
However, the current configuration of ocean temperatures in the subtropics “could induce contributions of dry air into the trade winds on the southern edge of the Talweg (a low pressure axis; editor’s note) of Monsoon. This influence could put obstacles in the way of possible cyclogenesis in the central part of the basin, and thus slightly moderate the expected increase in cyclonic activity,” note the meteorologists.
On the scale of the South-West Indian Ocean basin as a whole, “there is a probability of at least 30 to 60% that one or more cyclonic phenomena could form by the end of the calendar year “.
This activity is first planned far from inhabited lands in the first half of December, then potentially closer to lands in the west of the basin from mid-December.
“It is therefore possible that areas like Madagascar, the Mascarenes, or the surroundings of the Mozambique Channel could observe an influence of one of these possible phenomena.”
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– A dry trade wind and rising temperatures –
The “presence of a subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole in a positive phase (warm waters south of the Mascarenes vs. relatively cool waters further east) and a Mascarenes anticyclone that is a little more powerful than usual should favor a very present trade wind regime and drier than normal on Reunion Island at least until mid-December”, explains Météo France.
For the second half of December, the rain forecasts are more uncertain, depending in particular on the passage or not of a possible tropical depression system near the island.
Continuing an exceptionally warm month of November, temperatures are expected to remain above normal for most of the month.
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Weather, Reunion, Cyclone, Temperatures
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