DECRYPTION. War in Ukraine: sending French soldiers, “intense” support… why France is ruling out “no option”

Vladimir Putin may threaten to attack Ukraine's allies, but France is honing its weapons. Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot declared in an interview with the BBC on November 23 that the government is ruling out “no option”.

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He plans to support “Ukraine as intensely and as long as necessary.” And, according to him, Western allies should not “fix and express red lines”. A position that the tenant of the Quai d'Orsay justifies by the dangers posed by the current evolution of the conflict. “Our security is at stake. Every time the Russian army advances one square kilometer, the threat moves one square kilometer closer to Europe.”

Jean-Noël Barrot thus confirms without saying it the possibility of sending French soldiers to Ukraine. The President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron put forward the idea last February, attracting the wrath of certain European countries, starting with Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz then retorted that there would be “no troops on the ground, no soldiers sent either by European states or by NATO states on Ukrainian soil.”

Negotiations have begun

Olivier Kempf, director of the Vigie firm and associated researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, does not believe in sending troops to the front. “It would be too risky, we would become a target, we would have human losses and we would have to retaliate.” Especially since polls show: “The French are very reluctant not to support Ukraine, but to send troops there.”

According to Olivier Kempf, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs has another objective, directly linked to the election to the American presidency of Donald Trump, who is ready to end the war in “twenty-four hours”. “Behind the scenes, he has probably already entered into negotiations with Vladimir Putin. The dialogue will therefore take place mainly between Moscow, Washington and kyiv. In this three-part game, Europe is missing, to which Jean-Noël Barrot is trying, through his declarations, to redistribute the cards beyond Ukraine, his ulterior motive is the question of European strategic autonomy.

Franco-British cooperation

And French diplomacy wishes to expand the number of partners on the Old Continent as much as possible. Thus, according to information from Le Monde collected from a British military source, “discussions are underway between the United Kingdom and France concerning cooperation in defense matters, in particular with the aim of creating a hard core between allies in Europe, focusing on Ukraine and broader European security.”

This rapprochement with “one of Ukraine's strongest supporters”, and between the only two European nuclear powers, is one more argument in the discussions. “To the extent that the Russians will probably demand neutralization of Ukraine, we must organize a security guarantee system in Europe, which is perhaps the hardest point of the negotiation,” warns Olivier Kempf.

The virulence of the words of the head of French diplomacy would therefore above all be a way of “showing muscles”. The researcher associated with the Foundation for Strategic Research recalls: “When you enter into negotiations, you must speak loudly. Even if it means displaying objectives that you know are unachievable.”