The budget will “probably” be adopted by 49.3, says Michel Barnier, who warns of “serious turbulence on the financial markets” in the event of censorship

Guest of TF1’s “8 p.m.” on Tuesday, November 26, the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, declared that “probably, definitely”the finance bill for 2025 would be adopted using article 49.3 of the Constitution. This adoption without going through a vote would open the way to the tabling of a motion of censure from the left, with which the far right threatens to join, which would bring down the government.

Michel Barnier consider this censorship by “an alliance in votes, improbable but possible, between the votes of Mr. [Jean-Luc] Mélenchon and the voices of M^me [Marine] Le Pen, which would be joined by the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and the Greens. I fall, the government shuts down and what happens? There is no more budget.” For the head of government, “serious turbulence in the financial markets” would arise in the event of a motion of censure adopted, ensuring that the French wanted to “stability”.

Asked about the concessions made to political parties during discussions on the budget, and particularly the reduction in savings – while the government expected 40 billion euros – Michel Barnier defends himself and puts forward a budget which was originally “perfectible”. “I made it with the government in two weekshe stressed. We don't give to the right and the left, we mean local authorities, businesses, political parties and pensioners' associations (…). We will find a balance in the budget. The objective is to reduce the deficit of this budget to 5%” of gross domestic product.

A high-risk meeting on Wednesday

“We already borrow at very high interest rates, the interest rates that we are obliged to respect to finance our debt with Chinese or American investors. They are currently almost at the level of Greece”added the Prime Minister, appointed in September to Matignon by Emmanuel Macron to get the country out of the political crisis following the dissolution of the National Assembly. The gap between interest rates on the ten-year benchmark loan between France and Germany has reached its highest level since 2012.

If his future is suspended in Parliament, Michel Barnier declared that he would rule out the possibility of resigning and wanted to plan beyond the end of the year 2024 by listing “the subjects on which [il a] want to act (…) : the daily security of the French, the control of immigration and the ban on illegal immigration, on work which must pay more than benefits, with a single social allowance, on democracy and perhaps the project that many parties wish for proportional representation, for example.”

On Wednesday, a high-risk meeting will be held on the Social Security financing project, before a possible activation by the Prime Minister of article 49.3 on this text. Received Monday by Michel Barnier as part of a series of interviews with the leaders of the parliamentary groups, the leaders of the deputies of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, and of La France insoumise, Mathilde Panot, reiterated their threat to censure the government on the budget.

The Prime Minister also received groups from his government coalition on Tuesday, which for its part is divided on tax increases. He must still discuss this week with socialist, environmentalist and communist leaders.