What would happen if France did not vote on its budget for 2025?

The 2025 finance bill began its examination in public session this Monday in the Senate before making its return on December 18 in a National Assembly where tension will reign. More than ever, the threat of a motion of censure hovers over the executive. If the government were to fall before December 31, the deadline for voting on the finance law, France could start the year 2025 without a budget.

A scenario suggesting an American-style “shutdown” situation. A disaster scenario which could also occur if the executive fails to pass the text before the end of the year. In reality, a France without a budget, and therefore unable to pay civil servants or reimburse healthcare, is still hypothetical. “To avoid this situation, the legislator of the 5th, who was marked by the instability of the 3rd and 4th centuries, provided several solutions”, reports to Europe 1, Ramu de Bellescize, professor of public law at the University of Lille.

Pass the budget by “order”

If Michel Barnier ever decides not to use the now famous 49.3, he could see his bill be rejected by the National Assembly or not be voted on within 70 days. In this scenario, the Constitution offers a solution to the Prime Minister to dispense with the opinion of parliamentarians. “He could use article 47 which allows him to pass the budget by ordinance which is a decree taken in the field of law”, indicates, still to Europe 1, Ramu de Bellescize.

Please note that invoking article 47 is not possible if the government is subject to a motion of censure. If the executive is censured, then the bill will be struck down. “This is something that has never happened. Faced with this unprecedented situation, the Council of State could authorize the resigning government to take budgetary measures to ensure the continuity of the State,” underlines the lawyer.

The arrival of a “provisional twelfth” and a special law

In the event of a blockage in the Assembly or censorship, the government still has a few weapons in its constitutional arsenal. Among them is the special bill. The government, whether resigning or not, can assert Article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF) before both chambers and “urgently request authorization from Parliament to collect taxes” from 1 January 2025. “Regarding the expenditure aspect, they will be carried out via decrees on the basis of the budget for the year 2024”, explains Ramu de Bellescize.

As part of this special law, and to allow time for the 2025 finance bill to be voted on, the executive will be able to renew the 2024 budget thanks to the “provisional 12th”. “This stratagem takes the form of a bill which can be rejected,” tempers Ramu de Bellescize. “We will never have seen this scenario. Faced with this situation, Emmanuel Macron could invoke article 16 of the constitution and take full powers,” concludes the lawyer.