In Senegal, the failed return of Macky Sall

On November 17, the day of the legislative elections in Senegal, Macky Sall was once again conspicuous by his absence. Installed in Marrakech, Morocco, since the handover of power with his successor Bassirou Diomaye Faye on April 2, the former president and head of the coalition list Takku Wallu did not make the trip to his stronghold of Fatick (center -west), where he is registered, to fulfill his civic duty. A few days earlier, the Senegalese press had also noted the impossibility for him to vote in Morocco, due to a lack of updating of the electoral lists since the presidential election in March.

The day after the election, it was from his villa in Morocco that the former president acknowledged his defeat before the official publication of the results. “I would like, on my own behalf and that of the leaders and members of the Takku Wallu Senegal coalition, to congratulate the Pastef coalition on its victory”he wrote on the social network X. An unprecedented defeat in his political career.

According to the official results, published on November 21, the African Patriots of Senegal party for work, ethics and fraternity (Pastef) won 130 seats out of 165. That is, 78% of the votes and a number of elected officials well above the qualified majority, set at 99 deputies. As for the Takku Wallu coalition, led by Macky Sall, it only obtained 16 deputies (compared to 83 during the previous legislature).

Like the presidential election of March 24, Pastef, led by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, captured almost all of the country’s major cities, such as Dakar, Mbacké, Touba, Ziguinchor, Saint-Louis and Kaolack. Even in regions historically favorable to Mr. Sall, Pastef has managed to reverse the trend. The former president thus loses his native department of Fatick, where he built his political career as mayor of the town of the same name (between 2009 and 2012).

“Proxy campaign via WhatsApp”

How to explain such a debacle? “It’s simple, they led a serious electoral campaign, not us. They had real programmatic proposals where we bet everything on our leaders”says a young APR activist who says he is “disgusted” by his elders. Out of 46 departments, Ousmane Sonko made the trip to 42. “Where he went, he attracted the crowds, I noticed it in Kaolack, says the young man, originally from the center of the country. He traveled across Senegal with targeted proposals for each locality, with a method which consists of explaining his economic and social project. »

Faced with Mr. Sonko, Macky Sall, who has long distinguished himself by his own ability to plow the country during his previous campaigns, seemed invisible. Officially, the former president has not given the reasons for his absence in Senegal, but many observers point to his fear of possible arrest. “If he can return to the country, he has no guarantee of exit, while some of his former ministers have been deprived of leaving the territory”underlines Moussa Diaw, teacher-researcher at Gaston-Berger University (UGB) in Saint-Louis.

In fact, the threats of the new regime towards the figures of the old concerning alleged acts of corruption are thinly veiled. Result: the former president did not campaign in Senegal but from his residence in Marrakech, with directives on social networks and speeches on the loudspeaker of the telephone of his relatives at meetings. “Many mocked him for campaigning by proxy via WhatsApp”notes Babacar Ndiaye, political analyst at Wathi, a citizen think tank based in Dakar.

“The hasty return of Macky Sall to the national political game, when he had international pretensions, raises questions”he adds, recalling his renunciation of the post of special envoy of the Paris Pact for people and the planet (4P), at the beginning of October, to be able to be head of the list in the legislative elections. Another misunderstanding of the Senegalese, according to the researcher, is the alliance between the APR (Alliance for the Republic) of Macky Sall and the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) of his former rival, ex-president Abdoulaye Wade (2000-2012) , who called for Pastef to vote in the March presidential election.

“Their room for maneuver will be limited”

Macky Sall’s Takku Wallu coalition also had to face numerous defections. “Since the departure of his presidential heir apparent and former prime minister, Amadou Ba, his party and his coalition have crumbled”points out Alassane Ndao, teacher-researcher at UGB. Many national and local leaders have joined Amadou Ba’s movement, and even Pastef. Adji Mergane Kanoute is one of these “transhumants”. Invested at 24^e place on the national list of Takku Wallu, she finally joined the ranks of Pastef one week before the vote. “If the people are on the side of Ousmane Sonko, and he has proven it, then we have every interest in allying ourselves with his party, because we are there to represent the general interest”she justifies.

With 16 deputies, Macky Sall’s coalition nevertheless established itself as the main opposition force, ahead of that of Amadou Ba, who obtained 5 seats, and that of Barthélémy Dias, the mayor of Dakar, who won 3. “Their room for maneuver will be limitedindicates Alassane Ndao. The APR and the PDS only depend on their leader. No figure has emerged to be the locomotive of the opposition”.

The new authorities, with a very large qualified majority, should now be able to carry out their program, part of which is based on constitutional reforms and on the Senegal 2050 plan, which aims to accelerate the development of the country through industrialization and decentralization.

Many questions still hover over the 15^e Senegalese legislature. Will Macky Sall hold his position as future leader of the opposition? “Many people think that he will resign from his mandate because it is risky for him to return to Senegal”reports Moussa Diaw, from the UGB. The former president could thus be targeted by legal investigations for alleged corruption if a high court of justice were to be set up, as promised by Mr. Sonko. If he benefits from parliamentary immunity, it can however be lifted by a vote with a qualified majority, which the presidential majority now benefits from. In 2021, Ousmane Sonko himself lost his immunity after a vote from the camp of Macky Sall, then the majority in the National Assembly. Between the two rivals, the balance of power is now reversed.